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Philadelphia Phillies -126 @ Boston Red Sox +108

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez (L) vs. Nick Pivetta (R)

Temps in the low 70s with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph. 

Nick Pivetta has recorded 8+ strikeouts in four of his last five starts. He probably won’t hit that today, as the Phillies are striking out just a 16.7% clip against right-handed pitching over the last month. Pivetta has been blown up just a handful of times this season, and like yesterday, we need to remember that the Phillies right now are just not that great against right-handed pitching. Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and Edmundo Sosa are hitting righties just fine, but the rest of the team has been pretty abysmal in the last month’s sample size. I know Kyle Schwarber homered in the revenge matchup last night against his former team, but Pivetta’s 28.9% strikeout rate against lefties should prevent that from happening again tonight.

Cristopher Sanchez has been very solid over the last month. With a ground ball rate sitting above 60%, it’s hard to fin a lot that stands out here. Tyler O’Neill profiles the best from the right side, while Rob Refsnyder and Jamie Westbrook make some sense. Not too much to back although the Tyler O’Neill play is a live home run call.

Cleveland Guardians -104 @ Cincinnati Reds -112

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (R) vs. Nick Lodolo (L)  

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing in slightly from right. Still great hitting weather in a batter-friendly environment.

Nick Lodolo has seen his strikeout rate dip from 26.2% on the year to just 17.8% over the last month (73 batters faced). On top of that, the Cleveland team today only has three batters striking out above 22% to lefties over the last month. Tyler Freeman, Jose Ramireez, and David Fry are all hitting lefties well. The Guardians are not a top five offense today, but I could see them putting up a home run or two on Lodolo from the guys aforementioned.

Tanner Bibee has seemingly fixed his issues against opposing lefties. Whether that is luck induced or a short-lived stint remains to be seen, but at the moment, we’ve seen him skate against a handedness that had scorched him this season. With the ground ball still low (just 33%) and hot temps in Cincy, I’m more inclined to back two extremely hot lefties on this Reds team. Both TJ Friedl (0.375 ISO / 0.399 wOBA) and Jeimer Candelario (0.344 ISO / 0.412 wOBA). Friedl has hits in nine of his last eleven games including three homers in that timeframe. The Candyman has recorded a total base in nine of the last ten games and has cleared 2 HRR in six of the last ten.

Pittsburgh Pirates +144 @ St. Louis Cardinals -172

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter (L) vs. Sonny Gray (R)

Temps nearing 90 with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph.

Sonny Gray is going through it right now. The AL Cy Young runner-up turned NL Cy Young candidate had a great start to the 2024 season. Over the last month, he hasn’t finished six-complete innings more than once (May 14th), he has given up three or more runs in four of his last six starts, and we’ve seen the command take a huge dip with 2+ walks in five-straight starts. Most of his struggles are coming against opposing lefties (16% walk rate leading to a wOBA of 0.349). Gray should get back on track here today, as Pittsburgh is bringing some power, but they are also bringing a 29.2% strikeout rate to the table. Amongst Gray’s struggles recently, he’s kept the strikeouts in high regard, still striking batters out at a 33.9% collective rate. There are six batters on this Pirates team that are whiffing at a 23% clip or higher against righties over the last month. Bryan Reynolds is a solid 4/14 with two home runs in this matchup. There are concerns with Sonny’s recent struggles and with the hot temps + winds blowing out, I am probably just going to back strikeouts over for Gray and that is it.

Bailey Falter is coming off of a rout against the Dodgers (5 ER off 8 hits) in his last start. He’ll look to bounce back today in a hot environment as a huge underdog. The Cardinals have the 6th-highest implied run total on Wednesday’s card. You have a few righties here that are going to profile well in this matchup. Masyn Winn profiles the best over the last month while Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are also in play here. I’m off the lefties today, as Falter still has very strong numbers against lefties over the last month.

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