MLB Betting Angles for a 15-Game Tuesday!

Atlanta Braves -136 @ Baltimore Orioles +116

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Max Fried (L) vs. Albert Suarez (R)  

Temps in the 80s with winds blowing in from left-center at 5 mph.

Max Fried has been NAILS over the last month. The Braves southpaw has recorded 6+ punchouts in three-straight starts and has been an innings-eater for this time, recording 21+ pitching outs in six of his last eight outings. This will be one of his toughest tests of the season so far against the Orioles, who do have lefty smashers at the top of this lineup. Jordan Westburg should lead off here and represents a nice platoon situation with a high strikeout rate (42.9% L30 days). Adley Rutschman profiles the best on this team against lefties and is hitting much better from this side of the plate over the last month (0.333 ISO / 0.523 wOBA / 13% K% / 22% ground ball rate). Austin Hays is at least a little bit intriguing. We’ve seen Max, if he struggles at all, take a few shots from left-handed hitters who have low ground ball rates. Gunnar Henderson has a high ground ball rate, but he does see lefties well over the last month and has two homers over his last three games.

Albert Suarez continues to be a lifesaver for this Orioles rotation. Over the last month, the damage given up has been extremely minimal and while this Braves team is turning things around slowly against right-handed pitching, they definitely aren’t all the way back yet. Suarez isn’t a huge strikeout guy (20.8% collective rate), he will get some more opportunities today, as the Braves are striking out at a 24.8% rate collectively against right-handed pitching over the last month. Marcell Ozuna hits righties at the best clip on this team (0.329 ISO / 0.418 wOBA / 57% hard contact rate) while Jarred Kelenic and Matt Olson are both strong lefties that have high strikeout rates.

Washington Nationals -104 @ Detroit Tigers -112

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker (L) vs. Kenta Maeda (R)

Temps in the low 70s with winds blowing in from center at 8-10 mph.

Mitchell Parker has faced some tough tests over the last month. He’s had to take on the Braves twice in two weeks, the Guardians, the Twins, and the Orioles. His first several starts where against the Dodgers, Astros, and World Series Champion Rangers. There may not be a starting pitcher this season who’s had to endure that kind of stretch in his first two months in the MLB. All things considered, Parker has handled it pretty well. Sure, he’ll give up 2-3 ER in most starts, but doesn’t get blown up and keeps the Nationals in competitive games. He’ll now face a Tigers team that has been abysmal to left-handed pitching over the last month (0.083 collective ISO / 29.8% K% against lefties). Jake Rogers is the only batter hitting lefties well over the last month and is a fine one-off play if you want to select a bottom of the order guy (0.364 ISO / 0.413 wOBA / 16% K%). Really like Parker to get the job done here – he should have his fifth-straight start of 17+ pitching outs.

Following Jack Flaherty’s unfortunate exit last week, Kenta Maeda threw two pitches in the following game and was removed due to abdominal discomfort. He is in line to start on Tuesday evening and will take on a Washington team that is hitting righties better than lefties over the last month. Maeda has had damage against him from all sides in 2024, but specifically has shown reverse splits tendencies over the last month (0.273 ISO / 0.471 wOBA / 63% fly ball rate against righties L30 days). I think you just take the best bats on this Washington team here, as I don’t believe that Maeda is your average/above-average MLB pitcher anymore. Lane Thomas is seeing righties at the best clip on this team and should have his strikeout rate slashed a bit, as Maeda only has a 15.5% K% against righties on the season. Keibert Ruiz, Nick Senzel, and CJ Abrams should all be included here. Give me the Nationals to win this game.

Chicago Cubs +120 @ Tampa Bay Rays -142

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (R) vs. Zach Eflin (R) 

Zach Eflin draws the start against the Cubbies on Tuesday evening. Eflin’s strikeouts are way, way down from his season numbers (18% down to 13% over the last month) and he’s allowed 2+ earned runs in five of the last six outings. Considering Eflin’s strikeout dip recently, we can feel pretty comfortable playing the best hitters on this Cubs team against righties. Ian Happ (0.396 ISO / 0.386 wOBA / 70% hard contact rate) and Seiya Suzuki (0.254 ISO / 0.359 wOBA / 56% hard contact rate) are your best options.

Jameson Taillon has had a rough go of things over the last month. He’s allowed 3+ runs in four-straight starts and has allowed 6+ hits in five-straight starts. Taillon will see a Tampa team that is going through the ringer on this thread over the last week. They are striking out at a 25.1% clip against righties, they only have one hitter with an ISO higher than 0.150 to this handedness over the last month (Josh Lowe), and they weren’t able to put up more than three runs in a single game in the Orioles series (four-straight games). I can’t suggest a bat here but if the Lowe duo was hitting better, they’d be inserted here. 

Miami Marlins +120 @ New York Mets -142

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jesus Luzardo (L) vs. Tylor Megill (R)

Temps in the 70s with winds blowing out to left-center at 5-7 mph. There’s a bit of rain in the forecast that could delay things early, but this game should play in full no problem.

We are starting to see a full sample size of what Tylor Megill can bring to the table. He has four starts under his belt now and didn’t show any signs of damage until his last outing, where he gave up 4 ER to the Nationals. Megill’s collective strikeout rate sits at 27.8% over this time frame and his only real weakness seems to be against right-handed hitters that don’t swing-and-miss much. When you look up and down this lineup, you can’t find much you like. Megill can have himself a nice day.

Jesus Luzardo is coming off his worst outing in 2024 (9 ER vs. Tampa) and will face a Mets team that is crushing left-handed pitching over the last month. This New York team is coming off the travel period back from London on Sunday/Monday, so hopefully they are well-rested for this matchup, as they should profile well. You have six righties on this team that have an ISO of 0.200 or higher against southpaws over the last month (Vientos 0.303 / Lindor 0.294 / Alonso 0.257 / Martinez 0.235 / Bader 0.200). Mets are not a top five stack but they certainly can exploit the platoon matchup in this one.

Philadelphia Phillies -172 @ Boston Red Sox +144

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Kutter Crawford (R)

Temps just reaching 70 with winds blowing in from right at 5 mph.

Kutter Crawford draws the start here and has had a pretty abysmal month, allowing 4+ earned runs in four of his last five outings. Despite the damage, he’s still been able to record 17+ pitching outs in ten of thirteen starts this year, including four of those last five that he’s been eaten up. The Phillies are coming into this matchup with a day off from the London series, so travel could be a factor here just like the Mets situation. I wish I could trust this spot more, as Crawford has been a liability lately. Alec Bohm is hitting righties the best on the team over the last month while Harper is right there next to him. The Phillies have the 5th-highest implied run total but I don’t think that I can collectively call them a top five offense today.Zack Wheeler comes in with some deficiencies over the last month even if it hasn’t resulted in many runs given up. He has walked at least two batters in five-straight starts and has struggled mainly against left-handed hitters (11.8% walk rate / 0.345 wOBA / 27% ground ball rate). There are three righties on this team that should have some success here – Jarren Duran, Enmanuel Valdez, and Rafael Devers are all smashing right-handed pitching over the last month. Dominic Smith is also having himself a nice two-week stretch and provides another quality bat in this matchup. I’m off Wheeler having an elite performance and think most of his market is a trap today.

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!