Monday MLB Betting Gems To Consider

Baltimore Orioles -142 @ Tampa Bay Rays +120

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes (R) vs. Ryan Pepiot (R)  

We start the day off with an AL East showdown in the Trop featuring Pepiot vs. Burnes. Pepiot had an injury stint back in the beginning of May and has had two “normal” starts of 85+ pitches. Ryan has covered 16+ pitching outs in seven of ten starts this year and if you take out the two starts where his pitch count was limited as he came back from injury, that number puts him up to seven of eight over 16+ pitching outs. With a 28% collective strikeout rate, there’s definitely some juice here to get some strikeouts, but the main K guys are only at the bottom of this Orioles lineup (Cowser, Norby, Mullins strikeout 22%+). Pepiot should be able to handle the righties in this spot, but could see at least a little bit of trouble from these lefties. Gunnar Henderson leads the way and is second in the majors with 20 home runs (he’s had 5 HRR twice in this series). Anthony Santander has recorded at least two total bases in eight of his last ten games, including every game in this series. 

Corbin Burnes will be one of the most popular plays on the day. He is a road-favorite and gets a strong strikeout matchup against a very heavy-K team (hence why we loved Grayson Rodriguez yesterday – 29.2% K% for Tampa against righties over the last month). If these Rays bats are going to cause any trouble, it’ll be from right-handed hitters who have low strikeout rates. Yandy Diaz profiles as that guy, Isaac Paredes profiles as that guy, but other than that, there really aren’t many threats here. With that said, just be careful what you take for Burnes. He has only been able to reach seven strikeouts two times all season (11 vs. SEA/LAA) and has only recorded 19+ pitching outs in four of his thirteen starts this year. At the time of this writeup, the Burnes strikeout number is sitting at 6.5 – I lean over here. If it gets to 7 or 7.5 – I’m out.

Colorado Rockies +190 @ Minnesota Twins -230

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Dakota Hudson (R) vs. Chris Paddack (R)

Temps in the mid-70s with winds blowing in slightly from right at 5 mph.

Chris Paddack is coming off a 7 ER collapse against one of the best offenses in baseball (Yankees) and will take on a Rockies team on Monday that showed they can put up runs against right-handed pitching over the weekend (10+ runs on STL righty starters). Paddack has recorded a quality start (6+ IP w/ less than 4 ER) just three times this season and hasn’t reached the sixth inning of a game since May 19th. The Rockies bring a 24.2% K% against righties with them, but Paddack’s strikeouts are now sitting at just 20.2% collectively over the last month. Ezequiel Tovar profiles as the best bat against righties on this team (0.346 ISO / 0.459 wOBA) while Elias Diaz is another bat that could beat up on Paddack. Pretty middling stuff overall.

On the flip side, this Twins team comes in with the highest-implied run total on Monday’s card (4.9) and will face Dakota Hudson. The Rockies right hander relies heavily on the ground ball, but over the last month, the grounders have started to slide a bit (53.9% on the season, 47.7% the last month, which is somewhat of a red flag). Hudson has had his walk issues and doesn’t strike anyone out (just 12.8% L30). What is strange here is that when he gives up damage, it’s usually in home runs or extra base hits. He has given up 3+ ER in seven of twelve starts this year but has only allowed six hits three times on the season (he’s allowed five hits six times so Vegas appropriately set the line at 5.5 hits allowed). You attack Hudson with left-handed hitters, as he’s done very well against righties this season and over the last month. Trevor Larnach is a strong lefty candidate, Carlos Santana is a strong candidate wherever they put him in the order, even Willi Castro is solid, but Max Kepler is struggling mightily over the last month (good spot to turn things around, still in play). Given the lack of good offenses today, Minnesota has to rank up in the top three and probably top overall offense. I would also consider righties like Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda (awesome power numbers against righties lately) and Royce Lewis, who is a huge power bat in the heart of this order that normally has a low ground ball rate.

New York Yankees -126 @ Kansas City Royals +108

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (L) vs. Seth Lugo (R) 

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing in slightly from center at 5 mph.

Seth Lugo had an incredible start to the 2024 season until Cleveland bulldozed him for 5 ER off 6 hits in his last outing. With that said, Lugo has been a pitching outs machine, recording 18+ in eleven of thirteen starts this season. Seth has had a bit of trouble against lefties over the last month (mainly due to the Guardians), so a Juan Soto play “if” he’s in could be interesting. Alex Verdugo is the only lefty hitting generally well in this lineup if Soto isn’t able to go, so we’ll have to look at righties that can generate their own success. Obviously first in line here is Aaron Judge, who has the highest wRC+ in the majors and the highest wRC+ since 2004 Barry Bonds (Judge 214, Bonds 233 in 2004, Bonds has the highest wRC+ in the history of baseball with 244 in 2002). The Judge had seven hits and three home runs against the Dodgers over the weekend and has ten-straight games of 18+ fantasy points. That’s like Luka Doncic putting up 40 points in ten-straight games or Christian McCaffrey scoring a touchdown in twenty-straight contests. Out of his mind. The Yankees technically have the 2nd-highest implied run total, but honestly it’s pretty much just Judge or bust.

Carlos Rodon will have to face a Royals team that is very good against left-handed pitching over the last month. Maikel Garcia is a lefty-masher, Bobby Witt has the best numbers on this team against this handedness (0.353 ISO / 0.475 wOBA / 5% K%), Sal Perez has two homers off Rodon, and even Velazquez/Renfroe smoke left-handed pitching. This is not a good matchup for Carlos despite having a very good last month with the Yankees. Rodon has recorded 18+ pitching outs in six-straight starts and eight of his last ten, but I do think that streak is in jeopardy today, as the Royals will most likely make him work the hardest he’s worked in a month.

Toronto Blue Jays -102 @ Milwaukee Brewers -116

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios (R) vs. Colin Rea (R)

Temps will be a bit chilly at first pitch, so I’d imagine they close the roof this evening in Milwaukee.

Colin Rea had a bad stint in the middle of May where he was giving up a ton of damage. Milwaukee fixed this problem by putting an opener in front of him to shake things up and put him in a long relief/bullpen game situation and it has definitely worked. If Milwaukee does this again, Toronto is unplayable. If Rea starts and goes his regular pitch count, we can attack him with lefties primarily followed by righties who have low ground ball rates. Daulton Varsho is the main left-handed bat that I want, and considering Toronto DFA’d Cavan Biggio, they will remain righty-heavy for the foreseeable future. Spencer Horwitz is up for the Blue Jays now and should get a lineup spot today as a lefty in this situation (very cheap value bat). Righties with low ground ball rates that profile well against righties are Davis Schneider, Bo Bichette, and Danny Jansen. If Rea is the starter and there’s no opener in front of him, this Blue Jays team is a top three stack today.

The Brewers have a very similar outlook today offensively as Toronto. You have a pitcher in Jose Berrios, who like Rea, generally struggles against left-handed pitching and can be very solid against right-handed bats. Milwaukee has the number of lefties to stymie Berrios, but these lefties aren’t necessarily standing out against right-handed pitching lately (mainly due to being shut down by Phillies pitching last week). If I’m going anywhere, I’m sticking to the lefties at the top of the order in Brice Turang and Christian Yelich. Turang recorded seven hits and generate four runs in the Detroit series over the weekend while Yelich had five hits with two stolen bases. I give the slight lean to Toronto’s offense today – they’ll be the number three stack while the Brewers will be a close fourth. 

Read the west coast part of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!