If you're betting on the MLB August 13th...

Washington Nationals +142 @ Baltimore Orioles -168

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers:  Jake Irvin (R) vs. Trevor Rogers (L)  

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing in from left at 5 mph.

Trevor Rogers has given up 6+ hits in six of his last ten starts and will take on a familiar NL East foe in the Washington Nationals. While no one on the current Nats roster has a home run in this matchup, Harold Ramirez, Riley Adams, Luis Garcia, and Alex Call all have extra-base hits (all have doubles). With Washington’s lineup projecting eight hitters having above-average wOBA numbers vs. opposing lefties (8 over .300), I don’t see many worlds where Rogers holds them off forever. Alex Call has a 6-game hitting streak going with multiple hits in all six games. 

The Orioles have the 4th-highest implied total on Tuesday’s card (5.2). They’ll face off against Jake Irvin, a righty who has given up 4+ ER in four of his last six starts and at least 2 ER in six-straight outings. The majority of Irvin’s struggles are coming from right-handed hitters (.407 ISO / .475 wOBA / 58% hard contact), but he’s also giving up some damage to opposing lefties as well (.179 ISO / .313 wOBA / only 29% hard contact). The Orioles are most likely going to roll out their lefty-heavy lineup, but there should be enough solid hitters here against right-handed pitching to cause some issues. I am a huge fan of any righty in this spot, so we’ll just have to see what they are able to do with the lineup this evening (Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Urias are currently righties in the projected lineup). Colton Cowser has six hits in the last four games with a double and two home runs. Anthony Santander has three homers in the last week. Gunnar Henderson has six hits over the last two days. Mountcastle has recorded a hit in six of his last seven games. Washington’s bullpen is a bottom-ten unit in baseball.

Home Run Leans: Ryan Mountcastle (BAL)

St. Louis Cardinals +108 @ Cincinnati Reds -126

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde (R) vs. Hunter Greene (R)  

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to right at barely 5 mph.

Hunter Greene has recorded 18+ pitching outs in six-straight starts (L12/15 as well). He’s coming off a frustrating performance against the Marlins, but who hasn’t struggled against that team over the last few weeks? This St. Louis team doesn’t profile against righties nearly as well as they profile against left-handed pitching, and Greene will be able to generate his own strikeouts against some of the top of this order (top of the order has one hitter whiffing over 10%, bottom of the order (6-9) features four hitters whiffing over 25%). This is a slightly-above average situation to back Greene in and I anticipate a bounceback of sorts this evening from last week’s disappointment. The projected lineup is just 15/83 against Greene lifetime (.180).

The Reds have the 6th-highest implied total on Tuesday’s card (4.9). They’ll see Erick Fedde, who has given up 3+ ER in two of his last three outings and has given up extreme damage to opposing left-handed hitters (.353 ISO / .361 wOBA / 15% K% / 10% BB% / 57% hard contact). Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, Jeimer Candelario, and Jake Fraley are all lefties that can take advantage of this situation. Tyler Stephenson has four extra-base hits in the last week while Spencer Steer is on an absolute heater, recording a 5-game hitting streak with three home runs in that timeframe. It’s not a great setup on paper for Fedde, who will be overloaded with competent hitters against right-handed pitching.

Home Run Leans: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) / Spencer Steer (CIN)

Miami Marlins +168 @ Philadelphia Phillies -200

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Valente Bellozo (R) vs. Taijuan Walker (R)  

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing in from left at 5 mph.

Taijuan Walker will make his first start for the Phillies since June 23rd. Walker is recovering from an inflamed right index finger (pitching hand) and reportedly struggled in his first rehab start (bounced back a bit in his 60-pitch 2nd rehab outing). Considering he’ll be on some type of pitch count AND he is facing a right-handed pitcher’s kryptonite in the Miami Marlins, there’s little to be desired here in our opinion. Jake Burger has a 5-game hitting streak going with multiple base hits in four of those games (5 home runs in the past week). Surprisingly, Phillies bullpen also has the 6th-worst xFIP as a unit since the middle of July.

The Phillies enter the day tied with the Orioles for the slate’s 4th-highest implied run total (5.2). They’ll see Valente Bellozo, who has been surprisingly good in three of his four starts in the majors this season (one game of 5 ER to Boston, three games with a combined 2 ER given up). Bellozo hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit to an opposing lefty over the past month and is striking out 27% of lefties faced this season (36 batters faced from this side), so that will take me off of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh from that side of the plate. Bellozo is struggling against righties and eventually you’d think that this would result in runs, but surprisingly it hasn’t yet (16% K% / .304 ISO / .341 wOBA / 21% ground ball rate / 73% hard contact). Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have been the best all-around right-handed hitters on this Phillies team and deserve primary consideration. Trea Turner has struggled against righties recently but he and J.T. Realmuto could turn things around today. Bohm has a 13-game hitting streak going right now with four doubles in his last five games. Miami’s bullpen isn’t as good as it once was, but they still have the 5th-lowest xFIP in the league as a unit over the last month. I understand from a name recognition standpoint why the Phillies have a high-implied run total, but don’t understand it when looking at the matchup on paper.

Home Run Leans: Jake Burger (MIA) / Alec Bohm (PHI)

Seattle Mariners -102 @ Detroit Tigers -116

Game Total: 7 | Starting Pitchers: George Kirby (R) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)  

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing in from left at 5 mph.

While George Kirby has recorded 6+ strikeouts in seven of his last ten outings, he just saw this Detroit team back on August 7th and will be facing them for the second time in a week. Both pitchers are in similar situations today and will now be out of pitcher-friendly Seattle and placed in Detroit (outdoor environment with temps nearing 80). Kirby has seen his numbers take a dip to opposing lefties and this Tigers team has at least 5 lefties in the projected lineup. Even if they aren’t hitting all that well, I just have a hard time backing a pitcher in many regards after they just struggled against the same team. Parker Meadows is the best overall hitter on the Tigers against RHP and has a hit in five of the last six games since being called back up to the majors (five multi-hit games).

Tarik Skubal will be a hot topic of conversation today. He will also be seeing the same team in b2b starts and while the first one went well, there are always concerns with the second matchup in the last week and a noticeable change in ballpark factor. I’m giving an “A-OK” on the PrizePicks taco strikeout number at 5.5, but not sure how much further I want to back the play. The Mariners are still fairly weak against left-handed pitching and are striking out over 25% of the time against that handedness, but there are boom/bust bats in here as well that can do damage (Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Cal Raleigh have homers in this matchup). We should have a generally low scoring affair here and I’ll let the industry play these pitchers (we’ll stay away outside of the Skubal taco).

Home Run Leans: none

Chicago Cubs +130 @ Cleveland Guardians -154

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Javier Assad (R) vs. Matthew Boyd (L) 

Temps in the mid 70s with winds blowing in from center at 5 mph.

Matthew Boyd is back in a major-league rotation for the first time in 2024 after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has made five rehab starts in Cleveland’s minor-league system, which featured 27 strikeouts in 21 ⅔ innings pitched. Boyd was only able too get up to 63 pitches in his most recent start last Wednesday, so we shouldn’t expect him to go much further than 75-80 pitches today (around 4-5 innings at most). With that said, Boyd will face a Cubs team that has some heavy strikeout guys, but also has a lot of right-handed hitters that can absolutely demolish left-handed pitching. The batters that profile the best from the right side are Isaac Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Ian Happ (if he doesn’t strike out). Paredes has three extra-base hits in the last five games, Hoerner has six hits in the last week with a home run, and Swanson has cleared 2 Hits+Runs+RBIs in eight of his last ten games. Both Swanson and Happ have home runs in this matchup historically. This is a first-five take, as Boyd’s limitations combined with Cleveland’s fantastic bullpen limit the upside of this offense.

Javier Assad has limited damage to opposing lefties all season and has primarily been a reverse splits pitcher in 2024 (much worse to right-handed hitters). He has a collective 15% walk rate over the last month, but it’s not like Cleveland is walking much against opposing righties (6.2% collective walk rate is below-average). Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez are the only two hitters I can get behind in this situation, but it’s not like they are great plays by any means.

Home Run Leans: Isaac Paredes (CHC)

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!