If you're betting on the MLB August 16th...

Kansas City Royal +120 @ Cincinnati Reds -142

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen (R) vs. Nick Martinez (R)  

Rain that is threatening this game should end up staying out of the way. Make sure to touch back in on Discord. Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing right to left at 8 mph.

The Royals will face off against Nick Martinez, who has transitioned back to a full time starter after the Reds traded away some starting pitchers at the trade deadline. He has been a really good starter for this Reds team over his first 2 starts back in this role (12 innings with 12 strikeouts and 0 ER). The Royals will be a tough test though, as they have the 6th-best wRC+ over the last 30 days. If you are looking for bats to take against Martinez, it is going to be nearly exclusive to right-handed bats. That would lead you to guys like Bobby Witt Jr., who is averaging 3.2 Hits+Runs+RBIs over his last 10 games. The Reds have had a solid bullpen overall, so not sure I can get behind the Royals all that much. Players’ Weekend note: Vinnie Pasquantino is going to be rocking a bat all weekend that features the logo of a local animal shelter that he is a big supporter of. Kauffman Stadium even sells a sandwich that Vinnie  somewhat inspired (Vinnie’s Italian Beef Pasqwich) and some percentage of the proceeds made from that sandwich go to that animal shelter. 

The Reds have one of the coolest Players’ Weekend narratives as this weekend is Cincinnati Children’s Weekend at the Great American Ballpark. The Reds are welcoming over 25,000 employees and their families from the Children’s Hospital to the game. The Reds’ players will also be wearing custom cleats with designs by patients and families from Cincinnati Children’s Hospital. The Reds will be facing off against Michael Lorenzen, who has just been alright since changing teams. He has given up more damage to righties (.398 wOBA) but has been pretty bad overall to lefties and righties. I like to think there are a lot of bats that deserve leans today, but let’s talk about some of the standouts. Jonathan India was 0-23 before Wednesday’s game against the Cardinals. He seems to have rebounded in a nice way with a 3 for 5 game with 2 HRs. He is also 3 for 3 against Lorenzen with a HR. Elly De La Cruz has been smashing righties over the past month, but does have some strikeout risk today. Spencer Steer has covered 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in each of the last 4 games and Tyler Stephenson has covered 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 7 out of his last 10 games. Overall, I actually really like the Reds today with the narrative they have this weekend and the matchup. 

Home Run Leans: Jonathan India (CIN) / Elly De La Cruz (CIN)

Washington Nationals +222 @ Philadelphia Phillies -275

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin (L) vs. Aaron Nola (R)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to right-center at 6 mph.

The Nationals were shut down by Zack Wheeler yesterday, as he went 6 innings with only 1 ER and 6 Ks. Now they have to face off against Aaron Nola. The Phillies righty has had a bit of a turbulent last month where he allowed 7 base runners in each of his last 5 starts and has only recorded 1 quality start. The damage has mainly come from lefties, but the problem with the Nationals is that Nola has had 8 starts against this Nationals team over the past 3 years and he has only allowed 3 or more earned runs in two of those starts. That correlates with the BvP, as a lot of these bats really struggle against Nola historically. Overall, I think a guy like James Wood could hit a solo shot or some type of damage, but we trust the historics here and that means that Nola should have a similar start to what Wheeler brought to the table last night. 

The Phillies will get to face off against one of their favorite starting pitchers in the MLB today – Patrick Corbin. He is one of their favorites because facing him has resulted in a lot of success against him historically. Over the past 3 years, Corbin has had 7 starts against the Phillies and has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 5 out of the 7 starts (30 ER in total).  Byrce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Alec Bohm are all guys with very solid BvP against Corbin. We will go back to the same exact guys we went to last night against Mitchell Parker to start things out. We mentioned Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and Weston Wilson as guys who had a good chance at doing some damage. All of them hit home runs while Wilson hit for the cycle. After that, the lefty tandem of Harper and Schwarber are firmly in play just based off of good BvP (combined 20 for 61 with 7 XBHs and 2 HRs). You can get behind almost everyone in this lineup, but those are the main guys that I will highlight. If I had to rank them, the list would be: Bohm, Wilson, Schwarber, Castellanos, and Harper. Last, but not least, the Phillies have a jam-packed weekend planned out for Players Weekend. It’s also Toyota Phillies Alumni Weekend and today they are honoring Carlos Ruiz, who is one of the greatest catchers in franchise history. John Oates is going to sing the national anthem as well and the Phillies are wearing their City Connect uniforms today. 

Home Run Leans: Alec Bohm (PHI) / Kyle Schwarber (PHI)

Seattle Mariners +110 @ Pittsburgh Pirates -130

Game Total: 7 | Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert (R) vs. Paul Skenes (R) 

Scattered storms in the area that could potentially bring a delay. Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing in from right field at 9 mph. Good pitching weather for the pitching duel outside of the rain.

Paul Skenes is begging for the weather to not rain on his parade, because this could be one of his better strikeout starts of the season. We have seen Skenes’ strikeout rate take a slight dip over the last 5 starts, as he had to face off against some of the better strikeout teams in the league (Diamondbacks and Astros). All that to say, the Mariners are not that. They have the 3rd-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last month. We thought that the Mariners could be turning a corner, but it doesn’t seem that way, as their strikeout rate over the last 2 weeks has jumped back up to nearly 30%. Skenes is developing a bit of a walk problem to righties, but only a couple of guys in the lineup can make that a concerning issue (Arozarena and Moore).

The Mariners are going to roll out Logan Gilbert today, who has been pretty good over the past month outside of one glaringly bad spot against the Red Sox (7 ER over 2.2 innings). He has still been absolutely shut down to righties (.115 wOBA / 59.4% GB rate / 30.6% K rate). This Pirates team is running ice cold right now and have the 2nd-lowest wRC+ and the 7th-highest K rate against right-handed pitching. Lefties like Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz could cause some damage here, but my guess (as long as mother nature decides to let us have some fun this weekend) is that this will be a pure pitcher’s duel where both arms could combine for 20+ strikeouts. 

Home Run Leans: None

Arizona Diamondbacks -112 @ Tampa Bay Rays -108

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Ryne Nelson (R) vs. Ryan Pepiot (R)  

The Diamondbacks get to face off against the returning Ryan Pepiot. He has been on the 15-day IL since last month and has made one rehab start where he went 3.1 innings and threw 60 pitches. He should face some limit in terms of pitch count today. We know that this season, Pepiot has been worse to left-handed hitters, so your normal guys are in play (Carroll, Pederson, Bell, McCarthy). The only problem I have will be fully buying in that the Diamondbacks hang 5+ runs on the Rays today, as the Rays will bring in a bullpen that over the last month has the lowest wOBA allowed and the 2nd-lowest xFIP. We are back to the old days of Rays pitching where their bullpen can really carry them to wins. Overall, I do really like Carroll, Pederson, and Jake McCarthy. They are all carrying streaks of 5+ games where they have covered 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Again, the bullpen could end up ruining the fun in this one. 

What has gotten into Ryne Nelson? He was just a mediocre starter last year that was viewed as a liability come playoff time, but he has had one of the better last months of any starting pitcher in the MLB. His strikeout rate against both handedness is above 29% and his stuff to righties has been electric (51% GB rate/ .251 wOBA / .273 SLG). The Rays collectively have a strikeout rate that is 4th-highest in the MLB over the last 30 days against right-handed pitchers. They also have the 9th-lowest wRC+. Nelson could have a really good game today, especially with him pitching in Tropicana, which is one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in baseball. 

Home Run Leans: Joc Pederson (ARI)

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!