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Colorado Rockies +232 @ New York Yankees -282

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (L) vs. Kyle Freeland (L)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing right to left at 5-7 mph.

The Rockies head to New York to take on the Yankees and today and will face off against Carlos Rodon. Just when you think that Rodon is fully back, he decides to surprise you and allow a bad game. That is what happened last time out against the Tigers, where he allowed 4 ER in just 3.1 innings. Let’s start with this point first for Rodon: the strikeout rate is still really good over the last month (27% to righties and 34.6% to lefties). That works out well for him in this matchup because the Rockies are striking out at the 2nd-highest clip against lefties over the past month. In fact, we just saw DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker, and Patrick Corbin destroy this Rockies team over their last series against the Nationals. Now, we have to highlight that the numbers are below average, especially against right-handed hitters (.343 wOBA / .482 SLG / 17.9% GB Rate / 11.1% walk rate). Jacob Stallings is a guy that I think is solid here – he continues to smash lefties and was even a successful home run call yesterday. Brenton Doyle has also hit 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs in nine-straight games. Overall, you can expect Rodon to have some really solid strikeout upside, but he is too untrustworthy to say that he won’t allow damage at some point in this game. 

The Yankees are coming off of a big series win against the Guardians that have now put them 1.5 games ahead of the Orioles in the AL East and 1.5 games ahead of the Guardians in the race for the 1 seed. Today, they will face off against the Rockies’ starting pitching Kyle Freeland. The Colorado southpaw has allowed 18 ER over the past month (24.1 innings) and has allowed 30 hits in that same time frame. The Yankees are the 5th-best team in the MLB against southpaw pitchers over the last 30 days and should have a good chance of getting to Freeland here this evening. We prefer to have low-strikeout righties against Freeland since his strikeout rate against righties is pretty solid (26.7%). We can make an exception for Aaron Judge, whose strikeout rate against lefties is high (28.2%), but we also know that he is the hottest hitter in the league right now. After Judge, we have Gleyber Torres and Jose Trevino, who are both in solid spots and aren’t striking out against lefties over the past month. After Freeland is pulled, we should expect a bottom-ten bullpen from the Rockies. The Yankees are a full-go today with the highest-implied total on the slate.

Home Run Leans: Aaron Judge (NYY) / Gleyber Torres (NYY) / Jacob Stallings (COL)

Houston Astros -116 @ Baltimore Orioles -103

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Cade Povich (L) vs. Hunter Brown (R)

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing out to left at 5-7 mph.

Cade Povich is going to get the nod to take the bump for the Orioles today as they try to get a win after last night’s loss. Povich has had to face off against some tough opponents over his last 4 starts (Yankees and Red Sox) but has been able to weather the storm. The Astros have surprisingly been a below-average team against left-handed pitchers, so it is not like they set up incredibly well against Povich today. Povich’s main problem has been walking batters. He has walked 13 batters over his past 17 innings, which is bad-bad. He will have plenty of walk issues today, as there are 5 righties on this Astros team that have walk rates over 10% against lefties (over Povich walks is a good early look). The damage that Povich has given up this season has been mostly against right-handed hitters (.367 wOBA / 1.88 HR per 9 / 32.6% GB Rate) and there are some righties to take a look at here in this Astros lineup. Alex Bregman has been on a roll over the past 10 games, recording 2+ total bases in 8 out of his last 10. Yanier Diaz (7 out of last 10) and Jeremy Pena (6 out of last 10) have been on similar rolls as well. Jose Altuve has to be a highlighted bat as well with a .431 wOBA against lefties over the past month (27 PAs). I expect this offense to get to Povich at some point, as there are too many overwhelming righties that can do damage against left-handed pitching and if the walks continue to be an issue, then this could get out of hand.

Hunter Brown will be taking the mound for the Astros. He has been a great anchor piece for this rotation that has had their struggles all season long. Over the summer, he has had just a 3.23 xFIP, which is the 18th-best out of 130 qualified starting pitchers. He has been slightly reverse splits over the last month, with the damage against righties being slightly above-average (.358 wOBA / .455 SLG). That will work to his advantage today considering that he is going to most likely see seven 7 lefties today. The only thing wrong with that is that he is walking lefties at a considerably high clip over the past month (10.8%). The Orioles have the 4th-highest walk rate against right-handed pitching over the last month, so Brown “over” walks could be a good initial lean. Still, he should have an overall good start outside of the command issues and I expect him to limit damage here. 

Home Run Leans: Alex Bregman (HOU) / Yainer Diaz (HOU)

Los Angeles Angels +184 @ Toronto Blue Jays -205

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt (R) vs. Jack Kochanowicz (R)  

Chris Bassitt is taking the mound for the Blue Jays in hopes of rebounding from a string of bad starts. Over the past month, he is allowing the 10th-highest wOBA out of 122 qualified pitchers. This damage has come mostly against left-handed hitters (.432 wOBA / .621 SLG / 2.6 HR per 9 / 9.2% BB rate / 30% GB rate). The damage he is giving up to right-handed hitters is slightly better, but overall he is still an attackable pitcher. The problem is – how do you attack a pitcher with a bad offense? That’s what we have with the Angels here today. The Angels have faced off against 17 right-handed starting pitchers over the past month. Only 5 of those starting pitchers have allowed more than 3 ER. Nolan Schanuel is the only bat that I can fully endorse and feel good about. He has had a hit in each of his last 6 games and his numbers against right-handed pitching are solid (.404 wOBA / .172 ISO / 164 wRC+). Zach Neto, Mickey Moniak, and Jo Adell have good numbers against right-handed pitching over the last month so they are additional slight leans, but no one has been great. The Blue Jays are going to roll out a bottom-tier bullpen after Bassitt, so this is a full game take for this side of the ball. 

Jack Kochanowicz is going to take the mound for the Angels today after back-to-back solid starts against the Braves and Nationals. His swing and miss stuff is basically non-existent (only 7 strikeouts over 20.2 innings), but he is surviving with a good ground ball rate and is pitching to contact. Honestly, he isn’t nearly as bad of a pitcher as I expected him to be at the MLB level. He is consistently going to be a guy that gives up a lot of hits (has allowed 7 hits in 3 out of his 4 starts), but as the ground ball rate stays consistent, he could have a decent rest of season. We are looking for guys that smash the sinker from the Blue Jays (a pitch that Kochanowicz uses 66% of the time). Sadly, we don’t have many of those guys on this Blue Jays team. The sinker is actually the pitch that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the worst against. Ernie Clement (who has a HR in 3 straight games) sees the sinker the best out of anyone on this team (.358 batting average / .429 wOBA / .585 SLG). I like Clement as a HR call, but not sure that I can get behind much more than that against Kochanowicz. The Angels bullpen has the 2nd-worst xFIP in all of baseball, so maybe that is where this Blue Jays team can inflict the most damage.

Home Run Leans: Nolan Schanuel (LAA) / Ernie Clement (TOR)

Arizona Diamondbacks +110 @ Boston Red Sox -130

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello (R) vs. Ryne Nelson (R)  

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing out to right field at 6 mph. Hitter friendly park.

Brayan Bello gets the daunting task of taking on a very good Diamondbacks offense that is the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching over the past month (153 wRC+). Bello has a big problem here too, he is giving up tremendous damage to left-handed hitters (14.1% BB rate / 39.6% hard hit rate / .346 wOBA / .441 SLG / 5.43 xFIP). These bad numbers against lefties could get even worse considering Bello’s BABIP against lefties is below-average. Not to mention that Bello’s numbers get even more concerning when he pitches at home. Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, and Joc Pederson might be the hottest trio from the same team in all of baseball. All 3 of them have hit 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs in 8 out of their last 10 games. All 3 of them are firmly in play with how hitter-friendly Fenway is. Josh Bell should also be in consideration here considering he has had a home run against Bello in only 5 PAs. If you had to choose one batter, it would have to be Carroll, who has had 3 home runs in his past 6 games and smashes the sinker and slider, two pitches that Bello throws consistently. The Red Sox bullpen is downright awful right now, so this is a full game take for the Diamondbacks today. 

Ryne Nelson is going to get the nod today as the starting pitching for Arizona. His last month has been very solid, as he has allowed only 11 ER over 31.2 innings (.279 wOBA allowed / 5.7% BB rate / .219 batting average allowed). We have also seen his strikeouts take a big jump, where his rate was 19% over the whole season and 26.8% over the last 30 days. This will be a real test to see if he is actually improving or if it was just a good month, since he will be facing off against the 3rd-best offense against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days (132 wRC+). This Red Sox team has gotten a bit more strikeout heavy recently, as they have 5 hitters that have over a 24% strikeout rate, so maybe Nelson’s improved strikeout rate can help him out here to get out of jams. Still, Nelson’s main problem over the past month has been left-handed hitters and he will see plenty of really good ones today. At the top of that list will be Masataka Yoshida, who has had 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs in 7 out of his last 10 games. Triston Casas has been a huge piece to add to this Red Sox lineup recently. His wRC+ against right-handed pitching is currently highest on the team (219 wRC+ over 16 PAs). Arizona’s bullpen has gotten much better than their early season troubles, so I think Red Sox bats aren’t in nearly as good of a spot as the Diamondbacks bats. 

Home Run Leans: Corbin Carroll (ARI) / Joc Pederson (ARI) / Masataka Yoshida (BOS) / Triston Casas (BOS)

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!