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Kansas City Royals -102 @ Detroit Tigers -116

Game Total: 7 | Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans (L) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing out to right at 5 mph. Chance of a late start, but we should play fine here.

Tarik Skubal will start for the Tigers and will try to continue his domination over the last month. Skubal will bring a 33% collective K% to the table, but there will be below-average strikeout opportunities in this Royals lineup (11% K% as a team against lefties). Low ground ball hitters will have the best chance at succeeding here and there are a lot of those kinds of hitters in this KC lineup. Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Sal Perez, and Garrett Hampson have the low ground ball rates to take advantage of this situation. Witt is riding a 14-game hitting streak with nine hits (2 2B, 2 HR) in the past four games (he’s also scored 9 runs in the past five). Renfroe has a 7-game hitting streak and Pasquantino has three homers in the past two days. Not gonna lie, Skubal could give up an unusual amount of runs in this situation and is not a good fantasy play today. Once he’s out of the game, the Royals will get to tee off against a Tigers bullpen that has the 4th-worst xFIP in the majors over the last month.

Cole Ragans draws the start and has a much better outlook than Skubal does. He will face off against nine righties, but only four of those righties are seeing left-handed pitching well over the last month. Andy Ibanez, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Matt Vierling, and Ryan Vilade all have above-average numbers against this handedness.  Ragans will bring a 24.7% K% to the table, but there won’t be that many strikeouts for him, as Detroit’s collective K% is just 19% to lefties over the last month (two guys over 30% will help). Ragans has still managed to record 18+ pitching outs in eight of his last ten starts despite giving up 3+ ER in three of his last five. I will lean on the Royals getting a win here, as Ragans has the better setup over Skubal and the Detroit bullpen has been very leaky as of late.

Home Run Leans: Vinnie Pasquantino (KC)

Milwaukee Brewers -118 @ Washington Nationals +100

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas (R) vs. Jake Irvin (R)

Temps over 90 with winds blowing out to right at 5 mph. Showers/storms ahead of first pitch with some rain throughout the night. A late start situation feels probable, but it’s Washington, who has a bad reputation when it comes to their grounds crew.

Jake Irvin draws the start for the Nats and has bounced back from the last time he played this Brewers team (6 ER off 9 hits back on July 14th). Irvin has shown some reverse splits tendencies over the last month and has seen his dominance against righties evaporate over the course of the summer. This could be a really strong situation for Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio, and Rhys Hoskins, all righties that could get to Irvin. Chourio has seven multi-hit games in his last ten while Hoskins is sporting a 7-game hitting streak. Both Adames and William Contreras are hitting over 0.400 against Irvin lifetime. Once the Washington bullpen comes in, Milwaukee will get to tee off against a unit that has crumbled recently (WASH has a bottom ten bullpen). The Brewers have the 4th-highest implied run total on the day (5), but we’ll need to circle back and check the weather before playing them.

Frankie Montas makes his Brewers debut and is coming into Friday’s start with solid numbers against righties and HORRIBLE numbers against left-handed hitters (0.409 ISO / 0.484 wwOBA / 57% hard contact). With the walk rate at 10% collectively, the command could also be an issue in a hot environment. This Washington team comes in with a decently high-implied total as well (4.8) and could have some success, but after losing Jesse Winker and Lane Thomas at the deadline, things kind of fall off. CJ Abrams is not hitting righties well right now, but that could turn around today. Luis Garcia and James Wood are your best lefties over the last month. This Washington team has to go very righty-heavy if Keibert Ruiz misses (which looks likely). Brewers are the better team stack, but I do like some lefties here.

Home Run Leans: Jackson Chourio (MKE) / Luis Garcia (WAS)

Toronto Blue Jays +138 @ New York Yankees -164

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (R) vs. Marcus Stroman (R)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph. A sizable storm system moves into the Big Apple at the early part of this game. Unclear at this time what that means, but some sort of delay risk is high and a postponement isn’t out of the question.

Marcus Stroman has allowed 5+ hits in eight of his last ten starts (5-straight) and 3+ ER in five of his last seven. The damage to both sides of the plate is pretty alarming and with his strikeout stuff now under 16% collectively, there should be things we can look at here. George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero, Daulton Varsho, Aljenadro Kirk, and Addison Barger are all hitting right-handed pitching well over the last month. Varsho has two home runs in this matchup, Vlad has recorded double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games, and Barger has six hits in his last four games (2 2B, 2 HR). Once Stroman leaves the game, the run production most likely stops, as the Yankees have a top five bullpen in baseball.

The Yankees have the 3rd-highest implied run total on Friday’s card (5.1). They’ll see Kevin Gausman, a righty who has a ton of history (good and bad) against this team. While Gausman has recorded 18+ pitching outs in four-straight (including a complete game last time out), he’s also surrendered 3+ ER in seven of his last ten outings. It’ll be a tall task taking on this New York team that is rolling on offense now and is also getting a lot healthier (Stanton is back). Righties have given Gausman the most trouble lately, which sets up well for Aaron Judge, who has 5 HR in this matchup over 47 plate appearances (11/37). Juan Soto is hitting over 0.500 against Gausman with 1 HR and 11 walks historically (7/13). Jazz Chisholm has four home runs, 8 RBI, and 5 runs scored in his three games as a Yankee (I think he likes New York). Even Austin Wells has put up monster numbers over the last week. Once Gausman leaves the game, the Yankees get to tee off against a Toronto bullpen that ranks dead last in xFIP over the last month (5.15 – really bad).

Home Run Leans: Aaron Judge (NYY)

San Francisco Giants +102 @ Cincinnati Reds -120

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (L) vs. Andrew Abbott (L)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph. Scattered storms in the area that fade out the later it gets. Early risks, but this game still has the chance to play uninterrupted.

Andrew Abbott will draw the start and will face off against a Giants squad that is whiffing at an extremely high 36% clip over the last month to lefties. While Abbott’s strikeout stuff has plummeted over the summer (down to just 16% against righties now), this will be a great spot to get punchouts here. With the strikeouts come a lot of risks when it comes to hitters smoking the baseball against this handedness, so guys like Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos, newcomer Mark Canha, and Casey Schmitt could all have a chance at getting an extra-base hit in this situation if they don’t whiff. Very boom/bust spot for Abbott, but the strikeouts will be available.

Kyle Harrison is coming off his best start of the season against the Rockies (nice call on that spot). He’ll face a Reds team that also brings a lot of strikeouts to the table (25% K% as a team vs. Harrison’s 30% clip over the last month against righties). We have a very similar situation on both sides of this game where each team strikes out a lot, but also has a few hitters that can do damage. On the Reds side, we have Jonathan India, Stuart Fairchild, and Noelvi Marte as strong power bats against lefties. Santiago Espinal (if in the lineup) is the best overall hitter against lefties and carries the least amount of strikeout risk. If there’s a combo strikeout prop out there somewhere for these two southpaws, take the over (expectation is higher than 12 punchouts).

Home Run Leans: Casey Schmitt (SFG) / Santiago Espinal (CIN)

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!