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San Diego Padres -164 @ Pittsburgh Pirates +138

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease (R) vs. Bailey Falter (L)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to right-center at 5 mph. A late start is possible here, but we should get a full game.

Bailey Falter looked strong in his return from the IL, holding the Astros to just one run off six hits. Falter is always troll-worthy at any given point, but he’s not going to line up well against the top of this Padres lineup, which brings a lot of talented righties against left-handed pitching. Jurickson Profar, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Donovan Solano all profile nicely here and should be able to collectively do well in this matchup. Machado has 21 total bases in his last five games and has one home run in one at-bat against Falter lifetime. Bogaerts has cleared 2 Hits, Runs, RBIs in eight of his last ten games. Once Falter leaves, the Pirates bullpen will come in – they are a top ten unit over the last month. 

Dylan Cease takes the mound on Tuesday evening. Cease has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball over the last month and has only given up one run across his last four starts COMBINED. He’ll bring a 36% K% to the table to take on a Pirates team that is whiffing at 22.7% vs. righties (five hitters striking out over 20%). He’ll have to worry about Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, but from there, I do think Cease will have another really strong outing and get just enough run support to qualify for a win. The Padres righty has only allowed five hits in his last 28 innings pitched.

Home Run Leans: Manny Machado (SDP)

Cincinnati Reds -152 @ Miami Marlins +128

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo (L) vs. Max Meyer (R)

The Reds wrecked this Marlins pitching staff yesterday and will face Max Meyer today. Meyer has a very good strikeout rate against righties recently, but does give up a lot of damage to either side of the plate. Low ground lefties are in play – but there aren’t any lefties with ground ball rates under 40%. Tyler Stephenson and Spencer Steer are in play as power righties who can do well if they don’t strike out. Elly De La Cruz hit two homers yesterday and has an elite ceiling any time he can get a matchup where he doesn’t strike out. If Meyer has walk issues against this team, it could be a long day. Miami’s bullpen imploded yesterday, but they are still a strong unit (for now). Monday was a much better outlook on paper for this Cincy team.

Nick Lodolo is coming off his worst outing of the season after giving up 8 ER / 11 hits to the Cubs. Righties with low ground ball rates profile the best, but only Jake Burger and Nick Fortes have strong enough numbers to make me feel comfortable in suggesting them. Lodolo finds a way to rack up some strikeouts and have an effective performance, but Burger could definitely take him yard (he has five homers in his last ten games).

Home Run Leans: Tyler Stephenson (CIN) / Jake Burger (MIA)

Arizona Diamondbacks -104 @ Cleveland Guardians -112

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez (L) vs. Ben Lively (R)

Temps in the mid 70s with winds blowing in from right at 12-15 mph. Storms around the city of Cleveland all day. We’ll need to circle back to see if this one is playable, as I’m typing this 10 hours before game time.

Ben Lively draws the start and comes into the matchup with some glaring numbers against left-handed hitters (18% K% / 11% BB% / 0.259 ISO / 0.331 wOBA). Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Joc Pederson, and Josh Bell are all above-average hitters in this situation and should do well in this matchup. Marte has homered in b2b games and has great BvP in this matchup (3/5 w/ 2 HR). Pederson also has home runs in b2b games and has five in his last nine. Carroll has recorded 2 Hits, Runs, RBIs in seven of his last ten with 10 runs scored in that timeframe. This is a first 5 innings take, as the Guardians bullpen should shut anything down after Lively leaves the game.

Eduardo Rodriguez will finally pitch for this Arizona team in 2024! He will get a very tough matchup against a Guardians team that doesn’t strike out much against left-handed pitching and is also hitting left-handed pitching at an alarming degree lately. Lane Thomas, Jose Ramirez, and David Fry are all in play from a power aspect while Steven Kwan is a low-strikeout, high-on base leadoff bat. Given the fact we haven’t seen E-Rod pitch this year in the majors, I’m dialing back loading up on this spot til we see a bit more. J-Ram has five home runs in the last week and has accumulated 30 total bases in that timeframe. 

Home Run Leans: Ketel Marte (ARZ) / Jose Ramirez (CLE)

San Francisco Giants -122 @ Washington Nationals +104

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Hayden Birdsong (R) vs. MacKenzie Gore (L) 

Temps reaching 90 with winds blowing out to left at 8-10 mph. Very strong hitting weather.

The Giants have the 5th-highest team total on the day and face off against MacKenzie Gore. The Nationals southpaw has now given up 3+ ER in seven of his last eight outings along with 5+ hits in eight of the last ten. The damage numbers are very severe against right-handed hitters, which is a handedness that was able to get to Patrick Corbin last night. Fire up Tyler Fitzgerald, Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, Casey Schmitt and Marco Luciano today. There will be an awesome strikeout ceiling available for Gore, as the Giants are whiffing 40% of the time left-handed pitching over the last month (same take as the Corbin spot, Giants are whiffing at 31.6% to lefties on the year). I expect Gore to get strikeouts while giving up damage to this team up and down the lineup. Chapman has homered in three-straight games while Fitzgerald has three in the last four. Once Gore leaves the game, the Giants will have more scoring opportunities on one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Hayden Birdsong has not allowed more than 2+ ER in any individual start over the last month. He has dominated both sides of the plate, the only one red flag coming from a high walk rate to left-handed hitters, which won’t be much of an issue today. Considering the strong ground ball rate and elite strikeout rate of 33% over the last month, Birdsong profiles as one of the strongest pitchers on today’s card and should get the run support to qualify for a win. I struggle a bit to think he can go the distance to get a quality start, as he has only reached six complete innings once in his MLB career. Luis Garcia is the hottest hitter on this Nationals team right now and has been able to put up double-digit fantasy points in three-straight games (2 HR in that time).  

Home Run Leans: Tyler Fitzgerald (SFG) / Matt Chapman (SFG)

Los Angeles Angels +235 @ New York Yankees -290

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Davis Daniel (R) vs. Luis Gil (R) 

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing in from left at 8-10 mph. Rain before, during, and after in New York. This is easily the riskiest game on the board, which is unfortunate because this line moved 40 points from open in the Yankees direction. I would assume this one gets called early.

Luis Gil has been downright nasty over the last month and has not allowed an extra-base hit to a righty over the last month. He should be able to generate his own strikeouts here, as he’ll come into the game with a 33% K% since the early part of July. He would have been one of the stronger starters to back today, but this rain may make our decision fairly easy. If this game plays this week and Gil starts, I would hammer this situation. Lefties can get to Gil, but outside of Nolan Schanuel, I can’t find any red flags in this Angels lineup.

After giving up 11 runs against the A’s and Rangers, Davis Daniel had a decent outing against the Rockies in his last start (1 ER, 5 hits, 5 IP). If the rain holds up, he’ll face a Yankees squad that has the 2nd-highest implied total on the day (5.7 runs). There are a ton of hitters seeing right-handed pitching well in this lineup over the last month. Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm, and Anthony Volpe are all rolling against this handedness over the past few weeks and could’ve been awesome to roster in this situation. Judge has five hits in his last three games and has left the yard twice. Soto has a 6-game hitting streak with five extra-base hits in that timeframe. With Daniel’s reverse splits tendencies, that could also be an awesome spot for shortstop Anthony Volpe, who has a 9-game hitting streak with four home runs and two doubles in that timeframe. Once Daniel leaves the game, the Yankees can put up more runs on an awful bullpen. The only thing stopping the ceiling of the Bronx Bombers is mother nature.

Home Run Leans: Aaron Judge (NYY) / Anthony Volpe (NYY)

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!