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Baltimore Orioles -134 @ Tampa Bay Rays +114

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin (R) vs. Zack Littell (R)

We have a battle of the Zack’s (Zach’s) tonight in Tampa. Zack Littell will draw the start for the Rays, where he has managed to record 17+ pitching outs in four-straight contests. He’ll face an Orioles team that finally put it together against the Blue Jays last night, scoring seven runs in the last game of that series. Littell has shown weaknesses to lefties all year, which is not going to be a good sign when facing an Orioles offense that has seven hitters with a wOBA over 0.330 against righties. It all starts with Anthony Santander, who has four extra-base hits in his last four games (2 2B, 2 HR) while Colton Cowser continues to generate offense from the leadoff spot (homered last night). Jackson Holliday has eight hits in his last six games with three homers and a double in that timeframe. Gunnar Henderson is hitless in his last eleven at-bats, but is 5/10 lifetime in this matchup with two home runs on Littell. The Orioles have everything at their disposal against right-handed pitching, but have fallen flat on their face a few times this week, so we’ll temper our expectations.

Zach Eflin will make another start for the Orioles. He has looked pretty good in a few starts with his new team and now gets to face his former team in his former stadium. Eflin has shown some strong stuff against right-handed hitters and will have above-average chances for strikeouts today, as the Rays are whiffing 28.6% of the time to righties. Lefties with low ground ball rates might be able to do some damage, so guys like Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, and Dylan Carlson are all in play here. Brandon Lowe has two homers in the past three days and is seeing right-handed pitching at the best clip on this team. From there, I do think Eflin wins out after doing his usual 6 IP, 5-6 K, 2-3 ER.

Home Run Leans: Anthony Santander (BAL) / Brandon Lowe (TB)

Oakland Athletics +124 @ Toronto Blue Jays -146

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Mitch Spence (R) vs. Jose Berrios (R) 

The A’s are starting to revert back to their old ways but get to face off against Jose Berrios, a righty who has given up 3+ ER in eight of his last ten starts. Berrios has shown some reverse splits tendencies as of recent, but is still struggling to both sides of the plate from a strikeout (16%) and walk perspective (12%). What we should probably do moving forward is just mention Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler as your only guys in play against right-handed pitching. I wish I had a stronger lean, but unfortunately, there’s not much to look at on either side. Once Berrios leaves the game, the Blue Jays’ awful pen gets to come in, so maybe more runs are scored there.

Mitch Spence has faced an LA team three times in a row ahead of Friday’s contest (Angels twice, Dodgers once). While he hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in those three starts, the walk rate is now off the charts at 14% in the last month (13 walks in his last four starts). That might not be the biggest issue due to the fact that this Blue Jays offense is only walking 5.5% of the time against righties. Spence’s damage is coming from right-handed hitters, which creates another dream spot for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is absolutely out of his mind right now. Vlad has carried this offense over the last two weeks and has a 20-game hitting streak, an average of .507, OPS of 1.671, and 21 extra-base hits (oh yeah, he homered, doubled, and tripled yesterday). George Springer is in play here too, but hasn’t really put anything substantial together as of late.

Home Run Leans: Brent Rooker (OAK) / Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)

San Diego Padres -124 @ Miami Marlins +106

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez (L) vs. Edward Cabrera (R) 

The Padres have a team total just outside of the top five (4.7) and will see Edward Cabrera on Friday night. Cabrera has not looked good in 2024, but he’s strung a few stronger starts together recently, giving up less than 4 ER in four-straight outings. San Diego’s offense comes in hot and will get to face a pitcher that has looked lost against both sides of the plate if he can’t get strikeouts (collective rate at 29%). This is the exact wrong matchup to rely on swings-and-misses, as the Padres are whiffing at just 16.4% against right-handed pitching. Manny Machado has a hit in nine of his last ten games and has three doubles and four home runs in that timeframe. Xander Bogaerts has a 5-game hitting streak going with eight hits in that time frame. Catcher Kyle Higashioka has home runs in two of his last three games, and Jackson Merrill has seven hits in his last four games (2 HR, 2 2B). Miami’s bullpen has stayed intact for the most part since the trade deadline.

While the Marlins have been extremely troll-worthy against right-handed pitching, we’ll see if they can continue that against lefties. While they are striking out at a 28.9% clip against this handedness and have five batters with below-average numbers against southpaws, there are still some righties crushing in this situation. Jake Buerger has a 0.567 ISO, 0.457 wOBA, and a 65% hard contact rate to this handedness over the last month (6 HR in the last 10 games). Leadoff man Xavier Edwards has multi-hit games in five of his last seven while Emmanuel Rivera has hits in 5-straight. If Derek Hill is in the lineup, he’s a solid bat here too (1 2B, 1 HR the last three days). Starter Martin Perez gets an above-average chance for strikeouts, but has also given up 5+ ER three times in his last six outings. I could see a world where both offenses put up runs on the starters and the bullpens shut things down. Burger is 4/10 lifetime in this matchup with a homer.

Home Run Leans: Manny Machado (SDP) / Jake Burger (MIA)

Houston Astros +114 @ Boston Red Sox -134

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Ronel Blanco (R) vs. Tanner Houck (R) 

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing out to Green Monster at 15 mph. Awesome hitting weather if the rain holds up. Increasing chance of showers with a chance of a delay.

The Astros are tied with the Blue Jays for the day’s 3rd-highest implied run total (4.8). They’ll get to hit in a great Fenway Park environment (if the weather cooperates) and will take on Tanner Houck. The Boston righty has given up 3+ ER in three-straight and has allowed 13 ER in the last three outings total. Houck’s strikeout rate has dipped from 22% on the year to just 16.5% over the last month and the damage against lefties has been a big issue. We need to prioritize A) lefties and B) low-ground ball hitters in this Astros lineup. The obvious candidate is Yordan Alvarez, who is a left-handed power hitter that has a low ground ball rate and has home runs in b2b games. Jon Singleton and Victor Caratini are in play if they make the lineup. I’m not that stoked to roster right-handed hitters in this situation, but they could get there off the Boston bullpen, which is a bottom-five unit in baseball lately.

Ronel Blanco will get the start in fantastic hitter conditions. The Red Sox come in with the slate’s second-highest team total (5.4) and will get to face a starting pitcher that has allowed 2+ ER in seven-straight starts (4+ ER twice in the last three). All of Blanco’s weaknesses are coming against left-handed hitters, and boy is he going to face a lot of them today (0.341 ISO / 0.380 wOBA / 39% fly ball rate w/ 48% hard contact). Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, Rafael Devers, Dominic Smith, David Hamilton, and Nick Sogard are all in play (basically the whole team). Duran has a hit in 10 of his last 12, Devers has 10 extra-base hits in his last 10, Abreu has homered three times in the last week, Yoshida has 8 hits in the last three games (2 2B, 1 HR), and Smith has a 7-game hitting streak with 7 doubles in that time frame. Boston deserves to be one of the best stacks of the day as long as the weather holds up.

Home Run Leans: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) / Masataka Yoshida (BOS) / Rafael Devers (BOS)

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!