If you're betting on the MLB July 10th...

Chicago Cubs +146 @ Baltimore Orioles -174

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga (L) vs. Corbin Burnes (R)

Temps in the high 80s with winds blowing out to left at 15 mph. Pretty huge bump to bats with the humidity and strong winds blowing out. Rain moves in late, but we should get a full nine innings in here at the time of posting this.

Corbin Burnes has covered 18+ pitching outs in ten-straight starts and will bring a 22% K% to the table against a Cubs team that is striking out at a 25.4% clip against righties over the last month. Dean Kremer completely evaporated last night, but we’re going right back to the well with this take today. There are above-average strikeout opportunities for Burnes here, as the Cubs should in theory be a bit more lefty-heavy (5 lefties/4 righties expected). Burnes has been elite to lefties all season and with a strikeout rate of 24.6% to that handedness, he should be able to mow down most of this team. Seiya Suzuki is the bat I am most scared of here, but he does carry quite a bit of strikeout risk. Dating back to his time with the Brewers, Burnes has done pretty well to the majority of these bats except for Dansby Swanson, who is a pretty incredible 10/17 with two homers in this matchup.

Shota Imanaga has given up 3+ ER in two-straight starts following his 10 ER shelling against the Mets back in late June. Imanaga has still managed to record 18+ pitching outs in four of the last five starts but has seen his strikeout rate to righties dip 5% over the last month (24% to 19%). Austin Hays has the best power numbers on the Orioles against left-handed pitching the last thirty days (0.304 ISO / 0.528 wOBA / 62% hard contact) while Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle all profile well (in that order). The Orioles are tied with the Braves for the 8th-highest implied run total on today’s card and should not be considered a top five offense.

Cleveland Guardians -144 @ Detroit Tigers +122

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (R) vs. Reese Olson (R)

Temps in the high 60s with winds blowing out to center at 10 mph. There is rain in the area all night, but it should be light enough to just play through in full.

Tanner Bibee has made it through six full innings just 7/18 starts this season, but he’s done it more recently, covering 18+ pitching outs in six of his last ten (3 of last 4 if we want to get really specific). He will bring a collective 35% K% to the table on Wednesday and will face off against a Tigers that whiffs just 19.9% of the time against righties. Bibee has been ELITE to righties, so cross everyone off on this team batting from the right side. His main struggles are coming from lefties that don’t whiff, which will be the true test here today as he’s striking out 39% of lefties since June 10th (.302 ISO / 61% hard contact). Colt Keith is Detroit’s best bet at offensive production (0.253 ISO / 0.401 wOBA / 16% K%) while Riley Greene is a boom/bust “punch out or home run” bat. Bibee has himself a solid day here but could give up a home run to a left-handed hitter.

Reese Olson, like Bibee, has been elite to righties all season. The problem with this side of things is that the Guardians are going to throw seven left-handed hitters in this matchup today. Olson hasn’t been nearly as bad as Bibee against lefties, but could struggle if he can’t get strikeouts in this spot. Steven Kwan is a really nice bat here while Josh Naylor continues to stay hot in the summer months. Jose Ramirez just isn’t getting the job done right now against right-handed pitching but I’ll at least include him to complete the stack. Ramirez was the first player in MLB history to have three hits, three intentional walks, and two stolen bases in a game.

Seattle Mariners +116 @ San Diego Padres -134

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller (R)  vs. Michael King (R)

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing across the field left to right at 5 mph. Pitcher-friendly park.

Michael King will bring a 32.2% K% to the table against the league’s heaviest strikeout team in the Mariners. There are 8 hitters on this team that are striking out at a 24%+ clip against right-handed pitching since June 10th, which is honestly just laughable at this point. King throws a sinker 28% of the time and while we know that Luke Raley and Cal Raleigh hit this pitch well over the course of the whole season, the only batter on this team hitting the sinker at any clip over the last month is Josh Rojas. King will shut down all the righties in this spot and could give up a solo shot to a lefty, but the strikeout upside here is absolutely insane. The Mariners have the 3rd-lowest team total on today’s card (3.6).

Bryce Miller has allowed 5+ hits in five of his last six starts and will have below-average strikeout opportunities against a Padres team that A) is only whiffing at 16% to righties and B) is crushing right-handed pitching. If this weren’t such a pitcher-friendly park, I’d be considering these left-handed hitters as one of the top stacks of the day. Miller is elite to righties, so don’t touch them. Gravitate towards the lefties, a handedness where Miller has an ISO of 0.209, wOBA of 0.360, and hard contact given up at a 58% clip. This is a tremendous spot for Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth, and Jackson Merrill this afternoon – all lefties who are crushing right-handed pitching. If this were in any other ballpark outside of San Diego or Seattle, I’d rate this as one of the best stacks of the day.

New York Yankees +102 @ Tampa Bay Rays -120

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman (R)  vs. Zach Eflin (R)

Zach Eflin has given up 3+ ER in six of his last ten starts, most noticeably three of the last four. Low ground ball bats will do best here – Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Alex Verdugo, Gleyber Torres, and Austin Wells profile as those bats (Soto sits at 43% and is on the cusp). Where Soto lacks in the ground ball category, he makes up for it with his history against Eflin where he is 13/28 with two home runs and three doubles. Judge is just 1/12 with 8 strikeouts in this matchup.

Marcus Stroman has allowed 3+ runs in five of his last six starts and has only been able to record more than 5 strikeouts twice in the last month. Stroman is struggling mightily to right-handed hitters with low ground ball rates, something that the Rays could certainly bring to the table today. While they are hitting left-handed pitching much better than righties, guys like Isaac Paredes, Jose Siri and Randy Arozarena really stand out here as low ground ball righties. Brandon Lowe is a standout lefty in this matchup and could do very well against Stroman. There isn’t much great history here, but I am once again not expecting a great start from a Yankee pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers +110 @ Philadelphia Phillies -130

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone (R)  vs. Cristopher Sanchez (L)

Temps in the high 80s with strong winds blowing out to left-center at 15 mph. Awesome hitting weather.

Cristopher Sanchez was so good for so long. He got his bag with the contract extension (deservedly so), but then gave up 7 runs to the Cubs on July 4th AND got snubbed from being an All-Star (this was egregious). Unfortunately for him, he has to face a Dodgers team that sets up very well top-to-bottom against lefties over the last month and has horrible weather to endure for a pitcher. Low ground ball hitters will be needed to endure Sanchez’s 54% collective rate – Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Andy Pages, and Miguel Vargas are your prime options. Teoscar Hernandez has fallen off the wagon against lefties lately, but I will at least close this out by stating the Dodgers have seven hitters in their projected lineup with a wOBA of 0.340 or higher against left-handed pitchers over the last month.

The Phillies are tied with the Reds for the 3rd-highest run total on Wednesday’s card (5.2). This Phillies team just put up 10 runs against Dodger pitching last night – what a difference it makes to have Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper back in the mix. Gavin Stone has been very good this season overall, but he just gave up four runs to the Diamondbacks and has to endure the same hitter-friendly weather as Sanchez. Right-handed hitters have seen Stone the best over the last month, which could set up a tremendous spot for Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and Trea Turner, all righties who are hitting right-handed pitching well. Turner went 3/4 yesterday with a grand slam against his former team and has 15 hits in the last week (5 HR). While Schwarber/Harper won’t be primary hitters to attack Stone with, they provide tremendous pressure on opposing pitchers.  

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!