If you're betting on the MLB July 11th...

Toronto Blue Jays +102 @ San Francisco Giants -120

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (R)  vs. Jordan Hicks (R)

Temps in the low 70s with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph. Pitcher-friendly park.

Jordan Hicks has given up 3+ ER in four of his last five outings. He has also walked 2+ batters in each of his last four starts and has not been able to make it into the sixth inning more than once in his last ten outings (he has three quality starts on the year, all of them before May). Hicks’ main issues are coming from walking lefties and giving up major damage to right-handed hitters with low strikeout rates. Spencer Horwitz is your lefty that walks a lot while George Springer and Vlad Guerrero are absolutely crushing righties over the last month. Springer, Vlad, and Justin Turner all have a wOBA over 0.340 and there are five batters in this lineup that have walk rates in the double-digits.  I expect Hicks’ walks to go over and Springer/Vlad to do serious damage.

Kevin Gausman has recorded 18+ pitching outs in seven of his last ten starts but has also given up 3+ ER in five of his last six. The majority of his issues are coming from left-handed hitters with lower strikeout rates. Michael Conforto should do just fine here while Mike Yastrzemski is another lefty that profiles well. I’m willing to go to Jorge Soler, Thairo Estrada, Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman as well – all righties who are crushing right-handed pitching over the last month. For a game that is supposed to have a low total, I’m not quite certain how a lot of runs aren’t put up on either side.

Los Angeles Dodgers +128 @ Philadelphia Phillies -152

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Landon Knack (R)  vs. Aaron Nola (R)

Temps in the high 80s with winds blowing out to right at 10 mph. Very solid hitting weather.

The night part of this card starts with Aaron Nola against the Dodgers. Nola has given up 3+ ER in four of his last five outings and has struggled against teams that he shouldn’t have (DET/MIA). LA comes in with a relatively low total on this card overall, but I do think the top of the order should be heavily considered. Freddie Freeman may be hitless in this series so far, but that won’t stop me from having interest here (17/71 against Nola with 4 2B and 2 HR). Shohei Ohtani has a 4-game hitting streak going and hasn’t homered in three days (is he due? lol). Nola breezes through the bottom of this order. 

The Phillies come in with the 3rd-highest implied run total on the day (5.3). They’ll face Landon Knack, a righty with strikeout upside that doesn’t go very deep into games (and doesn’t allow many hits). Kyle Schwarber picked up right where he left out and homered in last night’s game while Trea Turner has five hits in the revenge series. Apparently Bryce Harper is now dealing with a bruised hand after just recovering from a hamstring injury, so we’ll see if he’s in the lineup today. Regardless of Harper, there are six hitters in this Phillies projected lineup with above-average numbers against righties over the last month. With the nice hitting weather and Schwarber/Turner doing their thing up top, I do expect them to win this game.

Chicago Cubs +120 @ Baltimore Orioles -152

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Justin Steele (L)  vs. Albert Suarez (R)

Temps in the low 90s with winds blowing out to right at 5 mph.

Every Baltimore pitcher in this series has been roughed up in some fashion. Enter Albert Suarez, who has given up 2+ ER in three of his last four outings. We’ve seen Suarez’s strikeout rate dip under 16% now and main struggles are coming from the right side of the plate (0.211 ISO / 0.365 wOBA / 44% hard contact). Enter Seiya Suzuki, who comes into a home run matchup this evening as the best right-handed hitter on this Cubs team. If Suzuki isn’t striking out, he’s doing major damage tonight against Suarez. Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, and Dansby Swanson are all righties I can get interested in. Cody Bellinger got hit in the hand last night and had to be removed from the game, we’ll see if he is in tonight.

Justin Steele has been awesome over the last month and will bring a 25% K% to the table against an Orioles team that should be respected against lefties (definitely worse against this handedness as a team but still respectable). The key to beating Steele, who has recorded 18+ pitching outs in six-straight outings, is finding righties with low ground ball rates to knock out his 50% inducing stuff. Unfortunately, you really don’t have that outside of Austin Hays (31%), who is one of many heavy-strikeout guys in this lineup against southpaws. While Jordan Westburg, Anthony Santander, Jorge Mateo, and Adley Rutschman all do well alongside Hays here, this is a very tough matchup against an ace that has found his groove.

New York Yankees -124 @ Tampa Bay Rays +106

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes (L)  vs. Shane Baz (R)

Shane Baz will make his second start for this Rays team as he fills in for the traded Aaron Civale. Baz gave up three runs against the Rangers last time out but was able to record the quality start and six punchouts. He’ll face a Yankees team that will throw some lefties at the top of this order that could do damage against him, but he handled all the righties pretty well against the Rangers last time out. Juan Soto and Ben Rice are the main bats that I want here. Judge is 1/3 with a home run, walk, and strikeout in this matchup (previous years). 

The Rays come in as the underdogs here, but it’s hard to see why after looking at how well they line up against southpaw Nestor Cortes. Nasty Nestor has allowed 5+ hits in eight of his last ten starts and while he keeps damage in check most of the time, he’s going to have to face off against nine righties in this Rays lineup tonight. Five hitters in the projected lineup are doing very well against lefties over the last month and we saw a similar situation a few days ago with Carlos Rodon (who got pieced up right away). Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, and Isaac Paredes are your mainstays here that just don’t strike out against lefties and all have a wOBA of 0.400 or higher to this handedness. Jose Siri and Jose Caballero bring the power against southpaws when they aren’t striking out as well. Diaz is 12/30 in this matchup with four doubles and three home runs while Paredes and Arozarena have left the yard twice each against Cortes.

Oakland Athletics +190 @ Boston Red Sox -230

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Luis Medina (R)  vs. Tanner Houck (R)

Temps in the high 80s with winds blowing out to left-center at 18-20 mph. One of the best hitter environments on the slate once again.

The A’s struck out a ton last night but were still able to put up runs in b2b days in Fenway. They’ll see Tanner Houck tonight, who has surprisingly seen his strikeout numbers fall through the floor over the last month (23.3% collective season to 18% last month – 26.5% to righties on season down to 14.5% last month). Houck has faced the Blue Jays twice and the Padres over his last four starts, so it makes sense to see his punch out number take a hit. He’ll look to get back on track here against an A’s team that is whiffing at a 28.5% clip to righties in June/July. Houck has been a bit leakier to righties who don’t hit the ball on the ground (and who don’t strike out) – you’re not going to find a bat that does all three of those things, but Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, and Brent Rooker all have great numbers as long as they aren’t striking out. I side with Houck having a strong day here with a lot of Ks, but the A’s haven’t gone away this week so one/two of these bats could do well.

The Red Sox will come in with the day’s highest-implied run total (6.3). They’ll face off against Luis Medina, who has allowed only six runs across his last four outings. Medina’s strike out numbers are in the teens (16%) and he doesn’t have the best ground ball stuff either (40%), so how is he doing so well? Your guess is as good as mine, but it won’t help jumping from pitcher-friendly Oakland to extremely hitter-friendly Fenway with the winds blowing out at 20 mph. Medina has limited damage tremendously against lefties (0.019 ISO / just a 0.255 wOBA), but he is walking 10% of them over the last month and allowing 50% hard contact. Call it luck, call it stadium, call it opponent, this has to regress at some point and with seven hitters in this Red Sox lineup crushing righties over the last month, it could very well be today.  Rafael Devers has the best collective numbers on the team (0.400 ISO / 0.507 wOBA / 14% K% / 69% hard contact – nice). Jarren Duran, David Hamilton, Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Dom Smith are all candidates to do well here (Yoshida/Abreu are fine). Rafaela has four hits in this series (a double and a triple) and has recorded double-digit fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. 

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!