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Philadelphia Phillies -166 @ Pittsburgh Pirates +140

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (R) vs. Martin Perez (L)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing out slightly to right at 5 mph.

The Phillies have the 4th-highest implied run total on Friday’s card (4.7). Hopefully this offense that is full of All-Stars got enough rest from Wednesday on, as they are going to profile really nicely here against southpaw Martin Perez. The Pirates lefty has given up 6+ hits in seven of his last ten outings and has been really iffy against righties with low ground ball rates. Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, and Rafael Marchan are all smashing left-handed pitching over the last month while I’ll also extend the spot for Edmundo Sosa and Nick Castellanos (Casty really struggling lately). Keep an eye on Weston Wilson, if he’s in the lineup I also like him (replacing Whit Merrifield). You’ll notice I didn’t bring up Harper or Schwarber yet. Both of them come in smashing lefties over the last month and COULD do well from that angle, but Perez has a much higher ground ball rate against lefties and hasn’t allowed an extra base hit from that side of the plate since the beginning of June (they could still walk and reach base at high clips). Furthermore, Harper/Schwarber are a combined 2/21 in this matchup lifetime while a guy like Alec Bohm is 8/16 with a homer. Phillies deserve to be a top five offense on the day.

Aaron Nola takes the bump as the Phillies hunt for the NL East Division Title. Nola was a bit rough around the edges heading into the break, as he gave up 3+ ER in four of his last six starts. He’s going to live and die with that 34% K% against lefties, as the Pirates will either strike out in bunches from that side or get to Aaron with some serious damage (0.262 ISO / 0.325 wOBA / 48% hard contact). Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Rowdy Tellez, and Jack Suwinski are all lefties that strike out above 23% that also have solid power numbers. Josh Palacios and Yasmani Grandal have very low strikeout rates that could do damage on Nola. No righties are in play for the Pirates, Nola shuts down that handedness.

Home Run Leans: Trea Turner (PHI) / Josh Palacios (PIT)

Cincinnati Reds -126 @ Washington Nationals +108

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas (R) vs. Patrick Corbin (L)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph.

The Reds will come in tied with the Phillies for the 4th-highest implied total on the day (4.7 runs). They’ll see Patrick Corbin, a southpaw that had given up 3+ ER in four-straight starts before the break. Corbin will get nine righties on this Reds team, and there are several angles to touch on for both sides. One of the lone positives for the Corbin spot is that he should have above-average opportunities for strikeouts here, as the Reds are whiffing 26.7% of the time against lefties over the last month. Everything else goes downhill from there, as the Reds have six hitters with above-average power numbers against lefties since June 19th. At the top of the list are Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, and Tyler Stephenson. We’ll see what the bottom of the order looks like, but Rece Hinds, Noelvi Marte, and Santiago Espinal are all really nice platoon righties that can get on for the top of the order to hit them in. ELDC is 5/8 lifetime against Corbin with a home run and absolutely crushed in that Miami series right before the break.

Frankie Montas is extremely good against righties and is the exact opposite against opposing lefties (18% K% / 0.364 ISO / 0.401 wOBA / 56% hard contact). There will be struggles here against a Washington team that will have a lot of lefties that are seeing righties well over the last month. CJ Abrams leads the way while Jesse Winker (potential trade talks), James Wood, Luis Garcia, and Keibert Ruiz are all going to profile well in this matchup. I’m off Montas with that many scary situations.

Home Run Leans: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) / Jesse Winker (WAS)

Tampa Bay Rays +144 @ New York Yankees -172

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin (R) vs. Gerrit Cole (R) 

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing across the field right to left at 5 mph.

Gerrit Cole is coming off his best start of the year against the Orioles back on July 12th. It was the first time in 2024 that Cole recorded more than 15 pitching outs, and considering he got a quality start, we should feel really confident in backing Cole in solid spots moving forward. I’m back and forth on really attacking this spot from either side today and probably need to see one more strong Cole start to feel confident. This Rays team doesn’t necessarily see him all that well historically (below 0.250 average with some isolated home runs), but I do worry about how patient they are (8 hitters with a walk rate over 8%) and that alone could produce a lot of base runners that result in big innings. Ben Rortvedt gets the revenge narrative against his former “catch” partner.

Zach Eflin has been very good to opposing righties over the last month despite only having a strikeout rate of 11% to that handedness. He strikes out lefties at a much higher clip (31%), but definitely can give up power to that side. Ben Rice and Juan Soto both profile well from a power standpoint but could strike out in the matchup. Aaron Judge is just 2/15 with 9 punchouts, while Soto is 14/31 with two homers (much better spot). I’ll also throw in Austin Wells, who is an extremely nice catcher play today that should have low ownership that is smashing righties. The Rays have the 9th-worst xFIP from their bullpen in the league since June 19th.

Home Run Leans: Ben Rortvedt (TB) / Juan Soto (NYY)

Detroit Tigers +100 @ Toronto Blue Jays -118

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty (R) vs. Chris Bassitt (R)

Chris Bassitt had a great June and has subsequently given up 3+ ER in b2b July starts against Houston/San Francisco. Strikeouts are down over the last month from Bassitt (just 18%), but he’s done a decent job not getting “blown up” with lots of small-ball stuff going against him (still hasn’t given up an extra base hit against a righty over the last month). Lefties can still get to Bassitt if you wanted to go somewhere, so guys like Colt Keith, Riley Greene, Wenceel Perez, and Zach McKinstry could all get to him. Keith recorded double-digit fantasy points eight times over the last two weeks before the break.

Jack Flaherty had one bad start over the last month where he gave up 5 ER to the Angels of all teams. This Toronto Blue Jays lineup has finally shown some strikeout weaknesses, now whiffing at a collective 24% clip since the middle of June (Flaherty has an electric 35% K% against righties). I do expect Flaherty to bounce back from that Angels start and have a really nice outing here with some above-average strikeout opportunities. I’d only play Ks though, as Flaherty is on the trade block and is expected to get moved in the next 10 days (this could be his last start, so pitch count could be an issue). 

Home Run Leans: Colt Keith (DET)

New York Mets -136 @ Miami Marlins +116

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea (L) vs. Edward Cabrera (R)

Edward Cabrera has looked absolutely lost on the mound since returning from injury in July. He has given up 2+ ER six times across seven 2024 outings and is coming off an embarrassing 7 ER performance against the Reds before the break. While we know he’s a heavy strikeout guy (32% over the last month and season), he gives up extremely heavy damage if he can’t get guys to miss on three pitches. We need to target lower strikeout guys in this situation – Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Francisco Alvarez, Jose Iglesias, Jeff McNeil, and Harrison Bader all whiff under 22% to righties. While the Mets have an implied total just under the Phillies and Reds (4.6), they are going to have to do all their damage on Cabrera, as the Marlins have the 2nd-lowest xFIP in the majors from their bullpen. Wish I could get more excited here and while the Mets could put up 5+ on Cabrera, it gets much tougher to see a positive situation once he is removed from the game.

Sean Manaea has recorded 18+ pitching outs in three-straight outings against teams that have been sub-par against southpaws (WAS/PIT/COL). He’ll not only get the run support here, but he should also be able to do pretty well against a Marlins team that is bottom ten in the league against lefties over the last month (collective ISO of 0.098 / K% of 25.1%). There are above-average strikeout opportunities up and down this lineup, but the one thing I do worry about are some of these INSANE walk rates in small sample sizes (4 hitters walking above 12% / 3 hitters walking above 20%). If Manaea can keep the walks under control, he’ll do great, but if he can’t, he’ll get himself in trouble.

Home Run Leans: Pete Alonso (NYM)

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!