If you're betting on the MLB July 1st...

Houston Astros -138 @ Toronto Blue Jays +127

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Hunter Brown (R) vs. Yariel Rodriguez (R)  

Happy Canada Day to our friends in the North! The only dome game on the small card.

The Astros come in with the highest-implied run total from a team that isn’t playing in Coors today (5). They’ll see Yariel Rodriguez, who has an interesting situation developing into Monday afternoon. Rodriguez pitched 1 ⅓ innings in the Blue Jays/Red Sox game that ended up getting postponed last week. What is interesting about that is that during the time play was suspended, Rodriguez threw an additional two innings worth of pitches in the away team’s bullpen while the players waited for play to resume (obviously it didn’t resume). Blue Jays manager John Schneider was quoted saying: “Technically it was like a three-inning outing for him. We’ll keep him on that same trajectory for his next start.” For fantasy purposes today, we shouldn’t expect Yariel to throw more than 60 pitches and we shouldn’t expect him to go further than the fourth inning even if things are going well. A play I could certainly get behind would be an under of strikeouts for Rodriguez, as his collective rate sits at 21% and the last 30 days numbers (in 9 plate appearances) sits at just 11.1% collectively. Even if the last month of data is a sample size that is untrustworthy, we know that generally Rodriguez is not a high-strikeout guy and we know that Houston is whiffing collectively against righties at just 17.5% over the last month. Y-Rod’s main struggles are coming against righties this season, which is not going to bode well against a right-handed heavy Astros lineup. Yainer Diaz has the best power numbers among Houston righties over the last month (0.255 ISO / 0.434 wOBA / 7% K% / 54% hard contact) while Yordan Alvarez has the best numbers as a lefty against right-handed pitching on this team. I’d prioritize Diaz, Jake Meyers (hitting second), and Alex Bregman (hitting leadoff) over Yordan Alvarez, but those four bats are where you probably need to start if you’re going to get different off Coors bats this evening. Jose Altuve gets the day off today.

The Blue Jays have the 4th-highest (technically 3rd-lowest) implied run total on Monday’s card. They’ll face off against Hunter Brown, who has recorded seven-straight outings with 18+ pitching outs and 5+ strikeouts in nine of his last ten starts. Brown has looked elite over the last month and has been on the best stretch of his entire career – does it continue this afternoon against the Blue Jays? We know one thing that probably will be extremely tough to achieve for Brown, which is his 29.8% K% holding up in this matchup, as Toronto bats are only striking out at an 18.5% clip against righties over the last month. The ground ball rate of 48% collectively has also been stellar, but the Jays are profiling really well with five batters with ground ball rates under 40% and the lineup turning things around dramatically over the last week or so.

Note: Vladimir Guerrero got scratched after he was announced in, he will not be playing today. Guerrero Jr. had the best numbers against right-handed pitching in June (0.256 ISO / 0.379 wOBA / 60% hard contact) while Spencer Horwitz had the second-best numbers (0.174 ISO / 0.449 wOBA / 13% K%). Horwitz, Varsho, Schneider, and Kirk are your low ground ball guys. Vlad destroyed Yankees pitching over the weekend for eight hits and three home runs in that series and has 20+ fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. Finally, this is a revenge series for former World Series Champion George Springer, who was the catalyst of the Astros offense for several seasons. Springer had seven hits with 2 2B and 2 Homers against the Yankees over the weekend.

New York Mets -110 @ Washington Nationals +100

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: David Peterson (L) vs. MacKenzie Gore (L)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing in from left at 8-10 mph.

Happy Bobby Bonilla day to all who celebrate! The Mets will come in with Monday’s lowest-implied run total (4.1 – tied with Washington) and will face off against MacKenzie Gore. The Nationals southpaw has been a bit leaky as of last and has given up 4+ ER in three of his last five outings. He has also failed to record a quality start more than once since the back half of May. The majority of his struggles are coming from left-handed hitters (0.407 ISO / 47% line drive rate / 13% K%), which could be interesting if the Mets only start Brandon Nimmo from the left side today and platoon the rest of the lineup with righties. The numbers over the season are very good to righties, but there are some concerns here against a Mets team that has seven bats from the right side with an ISO of 0.190 or higher and eight bats in the projected lineup with a wOBA of 0.350 or higher over the last month. We rode the Mets train the majority of the last week and it has paid dividends, but today we’ll be a bit more picky. I think Brandon Nimmo is the best bat in this Mets lineup to take advantage of Gore’s lefty struggles while Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Pete Alonso, and J.D. Martinez round out the top five against lefties in that order. Mark Vientos, Tyrone Taylor, Alonso, and Martinez have all homered against Gore in the past.

The Nationals come in with the same implied run total as that scary Mets team and will face off against David Peterson, who’s been a bit all over the place this season. Peterson has had massive walk issues in 2024, allowing 2+ walks in four-straight games and even getting up to 5 in his last outing against the Yankees. Strikeouts will be limited here against a Nationals team that is whiffing at just a 19% clip to lefties over the last month. Lane Thomas is by far the best bat against lefties on this squad over the last 30 days (0.458 ISO / 0.467 wOBA / 73% hard contact) while Nick Senzel and Jacob Young profile quite nicely against Peterson. It was announced that James Wood will make his Major League debut today for this Washington team. Wood is highly regarded as one of the better prospects in baseball and has recorded the HIGHEST wRC+ by a qualified Triple-A hitter younger than 2021 in the last twenty seasons (173, breaking Kyle Tucker’s record of 155 back in 2018). The Nationals definitely don’t profile as well as the Mets do coming in, but I do expect Peterson to get small-balled out of this game at some point and Gore to hold his own in a lot of spots on the other. Senzel is 4/9 with a home run in this spot while Ildemaro Vargas has 2 2B in 9 PA. 

Milwaukee Brewers -147 @ Colorado Rockies +135

Game Total: 11 | Starting Pitchers: Bryse Wilson (R) vs. Austin Gomber (L)  

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to right at 8-10 mph. Easily the best offensive environment on a 3-game slate.

The Brewers come in with Monday’s highest-implied run total (6.5). They’ll see Austin Gomber, a southpaw who has surrendered 4+ ER in four-straight starts in June. He has faced the Cardinals in St. Louis, the Twins in Minnesota, the Dodgers in Coors, and the Astros in Houston in that time frame, which is a fricken gauntlet that paints a rocky picture. Gomber’s main struggles are coming against righties over the last month (0.215 ISO / 0.425 wOBA / 44% hard contact), but the numbers against lefties recently aren’t anywhere near good either (0.286 ISO / 0.384 wOBA / 13% K%). This Brewers team is easily the worst team in the group above against lefties over the last month, which is going to make things really interesting on such a small slate. They are collectively sitting at an ISO of 0.084 against lefties over the last month, which is one of the worst rates in baseball in that timeframe. Joey Ortiz, their best hitter in this situation who would normally hit leadoff, is currently day-to-day with a neck injury and did not start on Sunday (pinch-ran on Saturday, which is a positive sign). If Ortiz is in, he’s a full go and represents one of the best opportunities on this card. If he’s out, we’ll have to lean on guys like Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras although their power numbers against lefties recently are not great. Yelich has had a nice last week with a home run, three stolen bases, and five runs scored. Jackson Chourio has been crushing the baseball recently (mostly against righties) and has a 7-game hitting streak with two homers in that timeframe. If Andruw Monasterio gets in the lineup, he currently has a 5-game hitting streak as well.

Bryse Wilson takes the mound and comes in with two very different situations. Number one, Wilson has been very good against righties this season and over the last month (1% walk rate / 0.113 ISO / 0.283 wOBA / 42% ground ball rate). Number two, he has been very bad to left-handed hitters all season and while the numbers aren’t as bad recently, they are still awesome to attack when the Brewers arrive in Denver (11% walk rate / 0.167 ISO / 0.333 wOBA / 54% hard contact). Michael Toglia actually leads the way here with the best power numbers against righties over the month of June (0.275 ISO / 0.369 wOBA) while Nolan Jones and Ryan McMahon both have hard contact rates over 60% and are hitting righties very well. Those three bats on the Rockies is where I would primarily target, but you can also get exposure to Ezequiel Tovar, Brendan Rodgers, and Elias Diaz (just returned from injury and was crushing righties).   

Last thing I’ll note here just because it’s a small 3-game card. There is a very small chance the Brewers could roll out an opener (usually it’s Jared Koenig) ahead of one of Bryse Wilson or Colin Rea. They have done it a few times this season but have not done it lately. If that ends up getting announced, my interest in Rockies really falls off.

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!