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Cleveland Guardians +150 @ Philadelphia Phillies -178

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Ben Lively (R) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (L)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing in from left at 5 mph.

Cristopher Sanchez recorded 18+ pitching outs in six of his last ten starts. The southpaw has had two very nice bounceback outings after giving up 7 ER to the Cubs back on July 4th. Sanchez has a commanding 53% ground ball rate and while the strikeouts aren’t really going to be at the forefront of this matchup against the Guardians, the damage has been kept in check nicely. Tyler Freeman, Jhonkensy Noel, and Jose Ramirez are low ground ball righties that can win in this matchup, but I’m not suggesting anything crazy here. Once Sanchez leaves the game, the Phillies bullpen, which has the 10th-best xFIP over the last month and a very solid unit, will do their best to hold Cleveland to minimal offense.

Ben Lively will make the start for the Guardians. He has allowed 6+ hits in five of his last seven outings and has shown reverse splits tendencies for the entire season. Trea Turner sets up as the best right-handed hitter to take advantage of this and has hits in six of his last seven games (4 HR in the last week). Nick Castellanos is another righty that has a low ground ball rate that could do damage on Lively. From there, I don’t think much really stands out. Cleveland’s bullpen is right up there with Philly and should be respected.

Home Run Leans: Trea Turner (PHI)

Cincinnati Reds -108 @ Tampa Bay Rays -108

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo (L) vs. Shane Baz (R)

Shane Baz has shown extreme splits this entire season in the limited work that he has shown this past month. The Rays righty has been absolutely nails to righties (20% K% / 8% BB% / 0,000 ISO / 0.233 wOBA / 38% ground ball rate) but has been one of the worst starters in baseball against left-handed hitters (18% K% / 13% BB% / 0.242 ISO / 0.456 wOBA / 23% ground ball rate). With a collective hard contact rate of 70% over the last month, there will be damage here from this Reds team. It all starts with Elly De La Cruz, who has the best power numbers as a left-handed hitter and has an 11-game hitting streak with eight stolen bases in that timeframe (homered on Wednesday). Jake Fraley hit a homer on Wednesday and he, Jeimer Candelario, and Will Benson are all in play from the left side. Don’t make the mistake and play righties here, as the lefties will dominate.

Nick Lodolo is a southpaw who has allowed 2+ ER in four-straight starts. This Rays team is extremely boom/bust with a ton of strikeouts (24.6%) but also extreme damage concerns for Lodolo if he can’t get those swings and misses. Low ground ball righties are going to profile the best (who preferably don’t strike out). Isaac Paredes is by far the best bat in this lineup against lefties and is a home run call today while Curtis Mead, Alex Jackson, and Jose Siri are all in play. The Rays traded Randy Arozarena and still have Yandy Diaz on the restricted list, which will hurt the overall upside of this lineup.

Home Run Leans: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) / Isaac Paredes (TB)

San Diego Padres +172 @ Baltimore Orioles -205

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Adam Mazur (R) vs Grayson Rodriguez (R)

Temps in the high 80s with winds blowing in from right at 5 mph.

Grayson Rodriguez enters the day as a huge home-favorite and will bring a 28.5% K% to the table. While he has recorded 5+ strikeouts in eight of his last ten starts, this market is here because the Padres have one of the lowest team whiff rates against righties (16%). Rodriguez’s main struggles are coming from right-handed hitters all season, he does a very good job keeping lefties out of the equation. If the Padres roll out a lefty-heavy lineup (projected lineup has five), this could be a very iffy situation for them and a huge bump for GrayRod. For what it’s worth, Kyle Higashioka has the best power numbers and a low strikeout rate as a righty on this Padres team. Manny Machado also has solid numbers and had a nice bounceback series against Washington. Machado ALSO gets a “former team” narrative here, as he heads back to Baltimore, where he was the star of the offense among some pretty awful teams. Xander Bogaerts has a 5-game hitting streak and has recorded eleven hits in that timeframe. GrayRod could find himself having a nice “in real life” game but if he can’t get the strikeouts, the fantasy upside evaporates.

The Orioles will face Adam Mazur, who is Friday’s “gas can of the day”. Mazur has given up 3+ ER in four of his last five starts and will take on a Baltimore team that has the highest-implied run total of all 30 teams on the day. Mazur has a 27% K% against lefties over the last month, but that recent spike in strikeouts is coming from the whiff-heavy Mariners. Damage numbers galore from either side of the plate, so we have to take the hottest hitters against right-handed pitching from Baltimore and go from there. At the top of the list are Anthony Santander and Colton Cowser, who both hit home runs yesterday. Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins are a few more lefties that are set up really well here. Gunnar Henderson hasn’t had the greatest week and is just 7/25 over the last seven days, but this is as good a spot as any to turn things around. The Orioles are a must-play in all fantasy/betting formats today.

Home Run Leans: Kyle Higashioka (SDP) / Manny Machado (SDP) / Colton Cowser (BAL) / Anthony Santander (BAL)

Texas Rangers +104 @ Toronto Blue Jays -122

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney (L) vs Yusei Kikuchi (L)

Yusei Kiuchi will face off against the Rangers after giving up 4+ ER in five of his last seven outings. He certainly still has the strikeout stuff and will bring a 33.1% collective K% against the Rangers, who have three bats whiffing over 28% (six in the 15-20% range). Lefties with low ground ball rates have done the most damage to Kikuchi recently,  and we do get that here with Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nate Lowe, and Jonah Heim. While Kikuchi has done much better against righties over the last month, it’s noteworthy to at least mention that Adolis Garcia and Wyatt Langford are raking opposing lefties at alarming clips. This spot does not set up for Kikuchi and sets up tremendously well for the Rangers, who get to face off against the worst bullpen in baseball after Kikuchi exits the game. Nate Lowe has three hits in seven at-bats against Yusei with one home run.

Andrew Heaney has had a really strong last month and will bring a 28.3% K% to the table against a Blue Jays team that has four hitters with 35% whiff rates against opposing lefties over the last month. Heaney’s biggest struggles are coming from lefties all season, but he may not see a single one today (if Varsho is in the lineup, he has been abysmal against lefties). There are three hitters that we should look at here – George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Justin Turner. Vlad is 3/4 with a home run, Turner is 3/10 with two home runs, and Springer is 5/16. Heaney gives up damage to those guys, but could do well against the rest of the lineup.

Home Run Leans: Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) / Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!