If you're betting on the MLB July 2nd...

St. Louis Cardinals +102 @ Pittsburgh Pirates -120

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (R) vs. Mitch Keller (R)  

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing in from center at 5 mph.

Kyle Gibson has recorded 18+ pitching outs in 11/15 starts this season. He’s coming off one of his more difficult stretches of the 2024 season, giving up 3+ ER three times in the last four outings. With that said, he is absolutely shut down to righties in that stretch (26% K% / 0.080 ISO / 0.249 wOBA / 55% ground ball rate) and while the damage given up is unfortunate to look at, the damage against lefties has been kept in check as well. The 15% walk rate sends the wOBA against lefties up over 0.300 (0.344) and there’s some glaring hard contact issues (54%), but the overall scope of the spot is pretty good for Gibson. He’ll face off against Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Rowdy Tellez – lefties that will be his biggest challenge (all three carry 20%+ K%). Reynolds’ 25-game hitting streak came to an end but he’s still the scariest threat on this team against right-handed pitching.

Mitch Keller has recorded 18+ pitching outs in 11/16 starts this season and has been all-around a very solid pitcher for the Pirates. The strikeout rate dips a bit to righties (18%), but it is elite against lefties (29%) over the last month. Keller has showed reverse splits tendencies over the last week, so we’ll need to find righties who don’t hit the ball on the ground. Those guys are Masyn Winn, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado, although 40% ground ball rates are just barely under the threshold we want for Goldy/Nado. Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan have been smashing right-handed pitching over the last month and their low strikeout rates could give Keller some issues as well. I expect this to be a relatively uninspiring game for fantasy purposes. 

Chicago White Sox +168 @ Cleveland Guardians -200

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Chris Flexen (R) vs. Carlos Carrasco (R)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to left at 10 mph. Great hitting weather!

The White Sox have an implied run total of 4.1 and will face off against Carlos Carrasco this evening. Cookie has failed to reach the sixth inning in 11/14 starts this season and has given up 6+ hits in 8/14 outings. The ground ball rate of 50% collectively over the entire season has helped keep damage in check outside of the occasional blow-up situations. Low ground ball hitters with solid numbers against right-handed pitching are the priority here: Paul DeJong has the lowest ground ball rate against righties on the team (30.9%) while Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert, and Andrew Benintendi have above-average power numbers against righties over the last month. Tommy Pham is 7/15 here lifetime with one double, one triple, and a bomb. 

The Guardians have the 2nd-highest implied run total on Tuesday’s card (5.7). They’ll see Chris Flexen, who is getting absolutely smoked by left-handed pitching this season. Flexen’s ill-timed numbers over the last month to this handedness is basically going to end Tuesday’s start in a bloodbath with all of the lefty sluggers in this Cleveland lineup (17% K% / 11% BB% / 0.356 ISO / 0.467 wOBA / 30% ground ball rate). There are six batters in the projected lineup with an ISO above 0.150 and wOBA above 0.300 against righties over the last month (Steven Kwan, Daniel Schneemann, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor, Jhonkensy Noel). Jose Ramirez has recorded 3+ Hits, Runs, RBIs in eight of his last ten games. Cleveland deserves to be a top three offense on the day.

Boston Red Sox -176 @ Miami Marlins +146

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Kutter Crawford (R) vs. Valente Bellozo (R)  

Valente Bellozo looked like Nolan Ryan in his first big league performance last week, going five innings and shutting out the Royals. I still refuse to believe that anomaly considering how bad his minor league numbers looked and think that the Red Sox are in a great spot today. Boston is coming in with a team total under 5, so while I don’t think they are one of the best offenses on the day, the spot for these lefties is very good. Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers continue to smoke right-handed pitching and both have a wOBA above 0.450 the last month. Eventually Bellozo will get exposed, let’s see if it starts today.

Kutter Crawford has had some time to take a breather after pitching just 1 ⅓ innings in a Red Sox postponed game last week due to weather. Prior to last week’s outing, he had recorded 18+ pitching outs in five-straight starts but also surrendered 2+ ER in six-straight. Things haven’t been perfect for Crawford if he can’t get strikeouts, but there are a bunch of heavy-whiff bats in this Marlins projected lineup (5 over 25%). Crawford’s main struggles are coming against lefties with low strikeout rates – Josh Bell represents the only lefty that doesn’t swing and miss a lot. I think Crawford gives up minor damage and finds his way to a quality start this evening.

New York Mets -138 @ Washington Nationals +118

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea (L) vs. DJ Herz (L)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to left at 5-7 mph.

The Mets come in with an implied-total that is not in the top five on this card (4.9, but it opened at 5.2, which was top four). They’ll see DJ Herz, the second Nationals lefty in the past two days. Herz has a collective 27.3% K% over the last month but has given up 3+ ER in three of his last four outings in the MLB.  Herz is not MacKenzie Gore and will face (hopefully) nine hitters with an ISO against lefties over 0.150 and eight bats with a wOBA of 0.300 or higher. This Mets team blew up the Nationals bullpen last night so if Herz struggles early, this one could go very poorly for Washington. Brandon Nimmo has recorded 2+ HRR in eight of his last nine games, Francisco Alvarez has three home runs in his last seven games, Pete Alonso has recorded a hit in eight of his last ten games, and even Mark Vientos has had 23 total bases in his last seven games. The Mets continue to rake offensively in these situations.

Sean Manaea’s biggest issues this season (and the last month) have come from opposing lefties (14% walk rate / 0.333 ISO / 0.435 wOBA). CJ Abrams and James Wood will most likely be the only lefties in this situation and while they are great hitters, the rest of this Nationals team is not set up to succeed with what Manaea brings to the table against righties. Lane Thomas represents the best righty hitter on the team with a low ground ball rate that should profile well in this matchup. Sean has had some issues with walks lately, I expect that to regress against a Washington team that has a 5.7% rate on the season.

Cincinnati Reds +176 @ New York Yankees -210

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Graham Ashcraft (R)  vs. Luis Gil (R)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing in from right at 5-7 mph.

Gil had a June to forget and he hasn’t been able to bounce back from giving up 12 ER to the Orioles and Mets. Now, the Reds are nowhere near the two best offenses in baseball, so I expect Gil to get things back on track slowly but surely. The top of the Cincy lineup is hitting very well right now but it falls off tremendously after that. Jeimer Candelario’s fantastic June was just that, as he is hitless in his last 12 at-bats, missing a lot of time with a hamstring issue. Elly De La Cruz has recorded seven extra-base hits in the last week and has three stolen bases there as well. The main offensive threat is Jonathan India, who’s hitting streak currently sits at 12 games. He’s had multi-hit games in nine of those and has hit at least one double in nine as well. The total doubles he has hit in the last two weeks (12) almost outweighs the rest of the team’s total hits in that timeframe. Luis Gil’s numbers against righties have fallen off a cliff over the last month if he can’t get his strikeouts (India is whiffing at just 17.9% against righties L30 days).

Graham Ashcraft has been up in the bigs for a week and it is like he never left in the beginning of June. Ashcraft has given up 3+ ER in seven-straight starts now, including six in his return from Triple-A last week against the Pirates. He will now see the Yankees, who come in with the 6th-highest team total on Tuesday’s card (5). Aaron Judge has covered 2+ total bases in seven of his last ten games and has covered that number at a 63% clip over the last month (19/30). Judge’s 0.452 ISO and 0.551 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last month is still one of the best in baseball. Graham Ashcraft’s numbers against low ground ball righties are…not great (7% K% / 0.250 ISO / 0.433 wOBA / 50% hard contact). Juan Soto is 3/9 with 2 doubles in this matchup, while Gleyber Torres had a really nice series against the Blue Jays (6 hits, 1 2B, 1 Home Run).

Houston Astros -102 @ Toronto Blue Jays -116

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrighetti (R)  vs. Jose Berrios (R)

The Astros will see Jose Berrios, who has given up 2+ ER in five-straight starts. He still has really solid numbers against righties despite his strikeout rate taking a nosedive this season, but the numbers against opposing lefties are alarming (12% K% / 0.241 ISO / 0.372 wOBA). This is a home run matchup for Yordan Alvarez, who has double-digit fantasy points in four-straight games (note that Yordan is just 2/13 lifetime vs. Berrios with a homer). If Houston elects to get lefties like Jon Singleton and Joey Loperfido in there, that will help things a lot. If they go righty-heavy, I probably limit my exposure to just Yordan and call it a day. 

Spencer Arrighetti is coming off of the best start of his career in his last outing against the Rockies. Before that, he had only completed six full innings twice, had allowed 3+ ER five times, 5+ hits eight times, and had walked at least 2 hitters in every start. His main struggles are coming against left-handed hitters over the last month if these hitters aren’t striking out (34% K% / 14.9% BB% / 0.325 ISO / 0.439 wOBA). Spencer Horwitz should do well here and it’s impossible to ignore what Vlad Guerrero Jr. has done over the last week (5 HR / 5 2B). Keep an eye on the Vlad injury, as he was scratched after “not being able to grip the bat comfortably” on Monday that resulted from getting hit by a pitch on Sunday. George Springer is on a 5-game hitting streak and the revenge narrative series continues.

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!