If you're betting on the MLB July 8th...

New York Mets -102 @ Pittsburgh Pirates -116

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott (R) vs. Mitch Keller (R)

Temps in the low 90s with winds with little to no wind out to left. A delay is possible if a shower pops up over the stadium but we should get a full nine innings of ball.

Mitch Keller takes the mound early in the afternoon in Pittsburgh. He has given up 3+ ER in three of his last four starts and has allowed 6+ hits in L6/10 games. Keller’s strikeout rate has stayed consistent against lefties (27-28% all year), but it has started to slowly descend over the last month to righties (15.4% on season, 13.8% last month). Keller has been giving up a ton of damage against right-handed hitters that have low ground ball rates but also hasn’t been perfect against lefties with low strikeout rates. This Mets team strikes out at a collective 20.3% clip, with Mark Vientos (a righty) being the only real heavy-K guy (25.9%). The Mets righties struggled as a whole most of this past weekend, but lefties Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have combined for 8 hits in this series and have low enough strikeout rates to profile well here. Francisco Alvarez and Harrison Bader have the best power numbers against right-handed pitching as righties, with Alvarez having a ground ball rate at 40% (Bader is at 45%). Tyrone Taylor has the lowest ground ball rate on the team (20%) while Pete Alonso has the 2nd-highest (44.9%). I would stick to Lindor/Nimmo/Taylor and potentially Francisco Alvarez when targeting Keller.

Christian Scott returned to the Mets rotation on July 3rd, where he gave up 4 runs on 6 hits against the Nationals, striking out just 2 hitters. His numbers are a bit all over the place when you look at full season numbers compared to that last start, as Washington was very lefty-heavy (he struggled a bunch to those lefties and shut down the righties). Bryan Reynolds has six hits (2 HR) in this series and is the leading candidate to bring damage against Scott while Rowdy Tellez also hit 2 HR on Friday (2nd-best numbers against righties on the Pirates). Jack Suwinski is slowly starting to heat up and could be another lefty to find lower numbers on here. Both teams have the ability to put up 3-4 runs on the opposing starter and the game’s outcome, in my opinion, will come down to bullpen play (PIT 9th-best bullpen ERA (3.85), NYM 20th-best bullpen ERA (4.31) // PIT 8th-best xFIP (3.88), 22nd-best xFIP (4.16) – last 30 days).

St. Louis Cardinals -108 @ Washington Nationals -108

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Miles Mikolas (R) vs. Mitchell Parker (L)  

Temps nearing 100 with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph.

Mitchell Parker just allowed 5 ER to the Mets in his last start and will be tasked with trying to handle the Cardinals, who put up 8 runs yesterday (4 on starter DJ Herz). Parker’s main struggles since June 8th are coming against right-handed hitters (0.211 ISO / 0.317 wOBA / 31% ground ball rate / 16.7% K%). He has done a very good job against lefties, so we’ll cross off Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Michael Siani and Nolan Gorman. Willson Contreras had a stellar Sunday (2/5 w/ 1 HR, 3 RBI) and is the main target here while Nolan Arenado is the second-best right-handed hitter to look at. I’ll include Masyn Winn and Paul Goldschmidt here, but they both have below-average ISO/wOBA vs. lefties over the last month. The Cardinals technically have the 5th-highest implied team total on Monday’s card (4.8), but I’m probably only able to endorse Contreras/Nado as above-average plays.

This Washington Nationals team has the 3rd-highest implied team total on today’s slate (4.9 runs). Miles Mikolas has recorded 18+ pitching outs in eight of his last ten starts (11/18 in 2024) and has only allowed more than 6 hits in just one of his last ten outings. Mikolas has had a much better six weeks than his first month-plus of the season, although I will include that he gave up a gross 9 ER off 12 hits against the Reds on June 27th (a bit of an anomaly for him but it needs to be stated). Over the last month, Mikolas has been extremely good at limiting damage to righties even if his strikeout rate is under 12% (0.123 ISO / 0.237 wOBA / only 37% hard contact). What I’m super intrigued about is this matchup for these left-handed hitters, because boy it could be a ride today. Mikolas hasn’t been other-worldly bad or anything against lefties, but it’s his clear weaker handedness this season and over the last month (0.170 ISO / 0.361 wOBA / 48% hard contact). The lefties on the Washington Nationals are the reason why (plus Lane Thomas) they currently sit with a record of 42-48 and in the relative “punchers-chance Wild Card” conversation. There are four hitters that are left handed on this squad that currently have an ISO of 0.240 or higher against righties and a wOBA of 0.380 or higher as well. CJ Abrams is out of his mind right now and is currently rocking a 0.559 wOBA and has the second-lowest strikeout rate on this team against righties (8%). James Wood has been stellar over his first week in the bigs, recording a hit in six of seven games with two extra base hits and six walks in that time frame. Jesse Winker is HOT right now – he’s recorded double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games and has scored a run in five-straight. Even Luis Garcia has ten hits in his last four games including three home runs. This Washington team is scorching hot against right-handed pitching right now and with the temps this hot, I’m halfway tempted to call them the best stack on the card (definitely deserve to be top three). Abrams is also 3/4 with a home run in this matchup while Winker is 5/13 with 2 bombs.

Cleveland Guardians -148 @ Detroit Tigers +126

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams (R) vs. Keider Montero (R)

Temps in the high 80s with winds blowing in from right-center at 10 mph.

Keider Montero has given up 11 runs across three outings for the Tigers and has given up at least one home run in each of those outings (4 total). The Guardians come in with a 4.7-implied team total (just outside the top five on the day) but I’m not sure (kind of like yesterday), how they rank as high as some of the other offenses on this card. The reason? Keider Montero is much worse to right-handed hitters on the season and over the last month than he his against the lefties. With a lefty-heavy Guardians team, I just don’t know if I can justify Kwan/Ramirez/Naylor as a top three stack with Montero’s “okay” numbers against lefties. Who I can get behind is going to be right-handed hitters Angel Martinez and Jhonkensy Noel, who both had very nice weekends and profile well on paper here (have to make sure they are in the lineup today). Kwan deserves some consideration, as he does have two homers in the past four days and a nonexistent strikeout rate.

Gavin Williams returned to the Guardians rotation last week after recovering from an elbow injury and proceeded to give up five runs off seven hits against the White Sox of all teams. Not a great return for the Cleveland righty. I’m willing to write that start off a bit and call it rust, but I’m not discounting that he might just not be ready to return in full “starting pitcher” action just yet. Last season, Gavin Williams was very solid against righties and struggled against lefties (struggles that came last week). Colt Keith, Riley Greene, and even Wenceel Perez (who’s turning a corner) are all in play on this side. Think backing Gavin Williams today might be a bit trappy on this small card. Greene has two home runs in the past four games, Keith has nine hits in the last five games with three homers in that timeframe, and Carson Kelly has two homers in the past four games.

Colorado Rockies +150 @ Cincinnati Reds -178

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Ryan Feltner (R) vs. Andrew Abbott (L)

Temps in the low 90s with winds blowing in from right at 5 mph.

The Rockies have the 2nd-lowest implied run total on Monday’s card (3.9) and I hate to make such a drastic statement on this card but I’m going to call absolute bs on downplaying this Rockies team. Not only did they put up three runs on Abbott back in Coors on June 3rd, they are more importantly turning a MASSIVE corner against left-handed pitching over the last month. Abbott shuts down lefties enough to a point where Nolan Jones and Ryan McMahon are out of play (McMahon will still be a tough out), but there an additional five right-handed hitters with a wOBA of 0.319 or higher against lefties since June 8th (Ezequiel Tovar, Brendan Rodgers, Elias Diaz, Brenton Doyle, Jacob Stallings). I have talked a lot of smack so far on the Abbott spot, so even while I do believe he gets roughed up a bit here, there are above-average chances for strikeouts in this spot as well, as the Rockies are still whiffing at a 27.3% clip to lefties over the past month. Another positive for Abbott – Tovar is on a pretty insane hitless streak of 24 at-bats. Brenton Doyle has three home runs over the last week and four doubles in that same time frame and is the best bat to look at here. Elias Diaz quietly has a 7-game hitting streak, but it has been a bunch of singles with two doubles included. To wrap this side up: I don’t think the Rockies are a top three offense on this slate, but they don’t deserve to have the 2nd-lowest team total either.

The Reds come in with the 2nd-highest implied team total on Monday’s card (5.3 runs). Rockies pitcher Ryan Feltner has allowed 4+ ER in six of his last ten starts and 6+ hits in seven of his last ten starts as well. He faced this Reds team in Coors back on June 3rd and gave up 8 runs off 10 hits, getting absolutely shelled in the process. Over the last month (and the majority of the season), Feltner has been pretty elite to right-handed hitters (26% K% / 0.053 ISO / 58% ground ball rate). Spencer Steer and Jonathan India have fantastic numbers against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days and also have lowish ground ball rates (40%) that could keep them in play, but left-handed hitters are Feltern’s kryptonite on the season (17% K% / 0.214 ISO / 0.385 wOBA on the year, 17% K% / 0.192 ISO / 0.365 wOBA over the last month). The guy is not great against lefties, case in point. Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario are your main bats to look at on this Reds team and boy are they in a fantastic scenario today. The Candyman has cooled off a bit lately but did have the home run against Feltner last time out and has recorded hits in four-straight games. I wish the bottom of this Reds order was hitting righties better – I’ll include Edwin Rios and Will Benson as lefties here but don’t feel good about it.

Minnesota Twins -180 @ Chicago White Sox +152

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Chris Paddack (R) vs. Chris Flexen (R)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing across the field right to left at 8-10 mph. There’s a low chance of rain in this game but I’ll at least mention that playing through rain is a possibility.

Chris Paddack is expected to return from a 15-day IL stint to start against the White Sox on Monday night (right forearm fatigue). Paddack had been pretty great against righties before his injury, main struggles coming against lefties on the season and over the last month (17% K% / 0.259 ISO / 0.482 wOBA / 77% hard contact). The White Sox will try their hardest to get lefties in this lineup, but I’m not sure how much good that will do. I’ll at least state that Andrew Benintendi and Gavin Sheets are solid bats here and we’ll just have to wait to see how the rest of the lineup looks. Paddack doesn’t bring enough strikeouts to really cruise here, but he should at least get the job done and limit damage to opposing righties. The run support from this Twins team should be there (they are the Twins though), so we’ll see how long Minnesota lets Paddack go in his first start back.

The Twins have the highest-implied team total on Monday’s card (5.6 runs). They’ll see Chris Flexen, who has covered 17+ pitching outs in three-straight starts but has allowed 3+ ER in half of his starts this season (9/18). We know that there will be no strikeouts in this situation, as Flexen has just a 14% K% and the Twins are whiffing at just 13.7% collectively against righties over the last month. We find ourselves in an interesting situation today, as Flexen has been “okay” against righties over the last month, but the best hitters on this team against right-handed pitching are all righties. Jose Miranda is the hottest hitter in baseball over the last week and has not only recorded hits in 11-straight games – he had recorded hits in twelve-straight at-bats during the holiday weekend (4th MLB player to ever do so). Byron Buxton has the 2nd-best numbers against righties on the Twins and has recorded 7 hits in 9 at-bats with 2 homers against Flexen (video game numbers). Ryan Jeffers is also crushing righties at the bottom of the lineup and is hot again. Add in the fact that Flexen is real, real bad against lefties and you can include Carlos Santana, Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, and Max Kepler to this Minnesota concoction. The Colorado bullpen has the 3rd-worst xFIP in the big leagues over the last month.

PS – keep an eye on Carlos Correa, as he had to leave Sunday’s game after being hit on the hand with a pitch.  

Texas Rangers -142 @ Los Angeles Angels +120

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jon Gray (R) vs. Davis Daniel (R)

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph.

Davis Daniel has had a few really strong starts under his belt for this Angels team. For context, those two teams that he had faced were the Tigers and the A’s. He had a much worse performance against the A’s, who put up 4 runs on him from the right side of the plate, where his numbers appear much worse on paper in limited sample sizes (0.269 ISO / 0.360 wOBA). He has looked very good against opposing lefties over the last month and now gets his toughest challenge against a Rangers team that has better collective numbers against righties than the previous two tests. Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford, and Marcus Semien are all going to profile decently well in this matchup, but I don’t know if I’m ready to say the lefties are in play here. Corey Seager might be all the way back, as he has recorded six extra base hits in the last week and is rocking a 12-game hitting streak. 

The Angels are tied with the Tigers for the 3rd-lowest implied run total on Monday’s card (4). They’ll face off against Jon Gray, who has allowed 3+ ER in three of his last four outings and has been blown up twice in the last month (9 ER to NYM, 8 ER to BAL). Obviously, the Angels are not either of those offenses, but context is always needed. Gray has been dominant to right-handed hitters all season and I’m willing to cross the majority of them on the LA side of the ball. Gray’s biggest struggles are coming from lefties on the season and specifically over the last month from the spots he got shelled (0.320 ISO / 0.519 wOBA / 9% K%). Nolan Schanuel, Willie Calhoun, and Mickey Moniak could all do well here, but the Angels are not able to put together enough lefties to cause a huge problem. I will give the nod to right-handed hitter Logan O’Hoppe who is probably the only righty to get to Gray (0.295 ISO / 0.460 wOBA / 58% hard contact vs. righties). Gray probably has a solid “in real life” game but I’m not too stoked on his strikeout outlook. 

Atlanta Braves -190 @ Arizona Diamondbacks +160

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale (L) vs. Yilber Diaz (R)

The Diamondbacks have the lowest-implied run total on Monday’s card (3.3). They will face off against Chris Sale, who comes in as the biggest overall favorite on this slate. Sale has recorded 18+ pitching outs in eight of his last ten outings and 19+ pitching outs in L6/10. The Braves southpaw has recorded 7+ punchouts in 13/16 starts this season but his 37.6% K% over the last month might be put to the test this evening, as the snakes are whiffing at just 16.4% to lefties over the last thirty days. Sale will overpower the majority of this lineup and will still find a way to get 5-6 strikeouts with a ceiling of 7-8, but I do expect him to give up some damage even if he is the far-and-away best pitcher on this slate. The Diamondbacks still have six bats with above-average numbers against lefties over the last month (Marte, Moreno, Gurriel, Walker, Grichuk, and Perdomo). Randal Grichuk is 6/20 lifetime vs. Sale with 2 home runs while Lourrdes Gurriel is 5/22 with a home run as well. Collectively, the Diamondbacks might be able to make Sale look human in some aspects, but I say all that to still back him as the best pitcher on this small card by a country mile.

The Braves are tied with the Nationals for the 3rd-highest implied run total on this card (4.9). They’ll see Yilber Diaz, who is regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in Arizona’s farm system (No. 6 Team Rank). Diaz started the season in Double-A and was promoted to Triple-A in the middle of June, where he has posted a 28:9 K:BB over 22 innings in those four starts. The strikeout rate has been consistently above 30% in the promotion from Double-A to Triple-A, so we should expect that to transfer into tonight’s matchup in a positive way, as the Atlanta bats are collectively whiffing at a 28.6% clip against righties over the last month. Jarred Kelenic is an offensive threat here if he doesn’t strike out, but Austin Riley is the hottest hitter on this Atlanta team over the past month (0.328 ISO / 0.445 wOBA / 67% hard contact). I will end this side of the ball confidently stating that I prefer the Nationals offense, Kelenic/Riley/Ozuna could do well, and Diaz could show an impressive strikeout performance.

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!