If you're betting on the MLB July 9th...

Chicago Cubs +126 @ Baltimore Orioles -148

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (R) vs. Dean Kremer (R)  

Temps in the low 90s at first pitch with winds blowing out to left at 5 mph. Awesome hitting weather. At worst, we get a late start here due to early storms. Keep an eye on weather later on in the card, we have some scary situations, but I fully expect this game to play.

Dean Kremer returned to action for this Baltimore rotation last week and threw 5 shutdown innings against the Mariners in his first start since May 20th. Outside of two hitters in the middle of the lineup (Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ), this Cubs team is struggling mightily against right-handed pitching over the last month (0.134 ISO / 25.3% K% / 0.306 wOBA). Kremer has above-average chances for strikeouts here and should only have issues with the two hitters mentioned above (he has struggled with lefties at times this season). After throwing 83 pitches in that last start and now on full rest, expect Kremer to hit that 90 threshold and get the run support for a win here. 


The Orioles have the 2nd-highest implied team total on Tuesday’s card (5.3). They will face Jameson Taillon, who has covered 17.5 pitching outs in five of his last six starts. Taillon’s numbers have surprisingly looked very good to opposing lefties over the last month (28% K% / 0.017 ISO / 0.154 wOBA / 26% ground ball rate), but the numbers against right-handed hitters are starting slide into a bad place (19% K% / 0.233 ISO / 0.345 wOBA / 20% ground ball rate). This Baltimore team ranks in the top five in wRC+ over the last month and will have several right-handed hitters that can win against Taillon. Jordan Westburg profiles as the best righty hitter on this team (0.243 ISO / 0.381 wOBA / 52% hard contact). I wish Ryan Mountcastle didn’t fall off a cliff against righties this past month, as he would’ve been a guy I would mention here. We’ll also see if Austin Hays makes the lineup today, as he’d be another bat I’d have interest in from the right side. What we have next are the ferocious lefties – Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad. All six of those hitters have an ISO of 0.150 or higher against righties and all six also have a wOBA of 0.300 or higher over the last month. A lot of these guys also have strikeout rates under 20% that will help when facing Taillon (Gunnar/Adley/Santander/Mullins/O’Hearn). Henderson has eight hits in his last four games with three extra-base hits, Kjerstad has three home runs in his last seven games, and Westburg is rocking a 6-game hitting streak with four extra-base hits in that timeframe. Great spot for the O’s. 

Los Angeles Dodgers +120 @ Philadelphia Phillies -142

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Bobby Miller (R) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)  

Temps in the low 90s with winds blowing out to center at 10 mph. Awesome hitting weather and one of the best situations on the card for batters. 

Zack Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies and will be tasked with dealing to some of the best hitters in baseball over the last month. We know that Wheeler is elite to right-handed hitters (24% K% / 0.062 ISO / 50% ground ball rate), but there are some weaknesses against lefties (20% K% / 0.209 ISO / 0.321 wOBA / 32% ground ball rate). This is a solid spot for Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Ohtani has seven hits over the last week (four extra-base hits) while Freeman has double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games. From there, I struggle to find anything that really falls into place. 

The Phillies come in with the 5th-highest implied run total on Tuesday’s card (5). They’ll see Bobby Miller, who hasn’t had a good run thus far in 2024. He has allowed 3 walks in three-straight starts since returning to the rotation in June and has given up 10 runs across those three outings.  His numbers against righties are bad outside of a 73% elite ground ball rate (12.9% K% AND BB% / 0.185 ISO / 0.325 wOBA), but the numbers against lefties…boy oh boy are they rough. Miller is walking 14% of lefties this season (17.9% the last month), striking out just 10% of lefties over the last three starts, and the damage numbers are through the roof (0.348 ISO / 0.490 wOBA). Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are expected to return to the lineup tonight and they couldn’t be walking into a better situation this evening. Schwarber, Harper, Marsh, and Stott are all solid lefties here while Trea Turner is the best righty and gets the LA Dodgers revenge series matchup. Turner has 12 hits in the last week with four home runs and eight runs scored in that timeframe.

Cleveland Guardians -144 @ Detroit Tigers +122

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Ben Lively (R) vs. Kenta Maeda (R)

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing right to left across the field at 5 mph. They either play through light rain all night or don’t play at all. We’ll have to circle back here for more info as the day goes on (check the discord).

Kenta Maeda is coming off a 9 ER shelling from the Twins in his last start and will have to face off against a Guardians team today that has the 8th-highest implied total (4.7). Maeda has given up 6+ hits in three-straight outings and has shown reverse-splits tendencies over the last month (0.407 wOBA / 0.196 ISO, 0.409 wOBA / 0.275 ISO on season). Once again, the Guardians could find a way to their team total but I just don’t think they profile well against these right-handed pitchers that are worse against right-handed hitters. We’ve had three-straight days of this and I’m sick of it, lol. Angel Martinez profiles nicely at the top of the order again, I’ll probably stay away from everything else (I am not endorsing Maeda). 

Ben Lively comes in with very respectable numbers against left-handed hitters over the last month (24% K% / 0.069 ISO / 0.275 wOBA / 50% ground ball rate). He’s struggling against righties who have low ground ball rates (considering his GB% is 56% to this handedness over the last month). Carson Kelly is the only right-handed hitter with a ground ball rate under 40% (27% to be exact) and has 2 home runs in his last four games played. If this game plays out, I could see Ben Lively having a really strong outing.

New York Yankees -122 @ Tampa Bay Rays +104

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (L) vs. Ryan Pepiot (R)

Ryan Pepiot has had a better last few weeks compared to the early part of June where he was getting worked. Today, he’ll face a Yankees team that should have enough lefties to give him trouble (5 in the projected lineup). Pepiot is striking out 27% of the lefties he is facing over the last month, but the walk rate is still super high (13%), the damage is still severe (0.279 ISO), and the on base stuff is alarming (0.429 wOBA). With Ben Rice at the top of the lineup ahead of Juan Soto, it creates a really scary scenario for Pepiot every time the top of the order comes up. Rice, Soto, Verdugo, and Wells are all in play here while Aaron Judge is a fine one-off play (not going to fade this, just not going to highlight it as a great matchup). Soto is 2/3 lifetime against Pepiot with a home run.

Carlos Rodon has failed to reach six complete innings in four-straight starts, giving up 3+ ER in every single one of those outings (23 ER total). He has been roughed up by both sides of the plate recently – the ISO/wOBA/hard contact combos are reaching dangerous levels (0.279 ISO / 0.426 wOBA / 51% hard contact). With that said, there are ample strikeout opportunities at the bottom of this order from Jose Siri, Jonny DeLuca, Jose Caballero, and Taylor Walls – guys who all strike out at a 25%+ clip (Walls and Caballero are literally above 40% over the last month). Rodon will get his strikeouts with those guys, but I am afraid of the top of this order. Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Amed Rosario, and Isaac Paredes are low strikeout bats that are all seeing left-handed pitching really well (outside of Rosario). Diaz, Randy, and Rosario all have homers in this matchup lifetime.

Washington Nationals +114 @ New York Mets -134

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin (R)  vs. Jose Quintana (L)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to left at 12-15 mph.

Jose Quintana shut out the Nationals back on the 4th of July and will have to see this team again for the second time in the last week. We know that’s never really a good thing for the starting pitcher, but this Washington team is so bad against lefties over the last month (7 below-average hitters against this handedness L30 days). Quintana’s biggest struggles are coming from lefties this season and over the last month, but CJ Abrams has been abysmal against lefties recently. Lane Thomas has great numbers against lefties (0.379 ISO / 0.491 wOBA), but I have to side with Quintana getting the job done again with limited strikeouts (good “in real life” game). 

Jake Irvin has recorded 18+ pitching outs in eight of his last ten starts and will take on a Mets team today that is still profiling well against right-handed pitching. This one is very easy to decipher – Irvin is elite to righties (30% K% / 5% BB% / 0.058 ISO / 57% ground ball rate / 37% hard contact) and pretty bad against lefties (21% K% / 11% BB% / 0.231 ISO / 39% ground ball rate / 58% hard contact). Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo are the only bats I’m touching here and both hitters are scorching righties over the last thirty days. Nimmo has six hits in the last three games with a home run. 

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!