If you’re betting on the MLB June 13th...

New York Yankees -162 @ Kansas City Royals +136

Game Total: 10.5 | Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes (L) vs. Alec Marsh (R) 

Temps in the NINETIES with winds blowing OUT to left at 12 mph. Insanely good hitting weather for the day’s best overall offensive environment.

The Yankees have the highest-implied run total on Thursday’s card and we will actually be backing them very hard today (6.2 runs – a Coors Field number). Alec Marsh is a pitcher that is extremely reverse splits and gives up a ton of damage to right-handed hitters (0.340 ISO / 0.427 wOBA / hard contact of 60%). Marsh has also allowed 4+ runs in three-straight starts. Aaron Judge is the best bat on this card today and is a home run candidate (even multi-HR candidate). Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe are all viable bats to complete the Yankees stack. I’ll stay away from Soto today, as Marsh is very good against lefties this season and over the last month. If you’re playing on Underdog & PrizePicks today, play the Judge fantasy score.

Over the last month, Nestor Cortes continues to struggle against right-handed hitters. His 23% ground ball rate combined with a 68% hard contact rate is not going to work out when you have temps in the 90s and solid winds blowing out to left. This spot is fantasy for the top of this Royals order, who in my book are the 2nd-best offense today right behind New York. Bobby Witt has video game numbers against lefties (0.462 ISO / 0.484 wOBA / 7% K%) while Maikel Garcia, Sal Perez, Nelson Velazquez, and Freddy Fermin are all crushing lefties over the last month. Cortes has given up 5+ hits in 11/14 games this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates -108 @ St. Louis Cardinals -108

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller (R) vs. Lance Lynn (R)

Temps in the 90s with winds blowing out to left-center at 8-10 mph.

Solid hitting weather at Busch Stadium today. Lance Lynn has been very good against right-handed hitters over the last month but has been susceptible to lefties. He’s a guy that’s going to walk 2-3 batters (2+ walks in L8/10), give up 5-6 hits per game, give up a solo shot, and somehow make it to the sixth inning in the majority of his starts. The lefties for the Pirates are players we can have some interest in, but it’s not a great matchup by any means. Oneil Cruz, Rowdy Tellez, and Bryan Reynolds are all bats I can buy into but if I’m siding with anything, I’m siding with Lance Lynn doing Lance things and just surviving out there. There are ample strikeouts in this matchup, as Pittsburgh is striking out at a 25% clip to righties over the last month.

Mitch Keller has been very solid over the last month – recording 18+ pitching outs in six-straight starts and not allowing more than 2 ER in a game since April 30th. This may be a little luck induced, as the ground ball rate has dipped under 35% collectively and the strikeouts to righties are sitting in the teens (15-16%). Goldschmidt and Arenado struggle historically against Keller, so the only real focus here is on the lefties – where Burleson and Gorman are okay, but not great.

Chicago Cubs -118 @ Tampa Bay Rays +100

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Justin Steele (L) vs. Taj Bradley (R)

Taj Bradley has had two rough starts this season that are skewing all of his numbers. He gave up 5 ER against Boston in the back half of May and got scorched by the Orioles for 9 ER on June 1st. While those starts are noticeably bad, he has had very solid outings before and after those blowup performances. You want low strikeout guys that see righties well in this matchup for the Cubs. Christopher Morel, Cody Bellinger, and Mike Tauchman are all striking out under 21% to righties and have the power numbers you want against this handedness. Suzuki and Happ have solid numbers but also strike out in bunches.

Justin Steele went through a rough patch in the middle of May and has put together three strong starts in a row against NL Central opponents. He’ll face a Tampa team today that has some hitters doing decently well to righties, but the mainstays are struggling. Jose Siri sees lefties the best on this team while Amed Rosario and Isaac Paredes have respectable numbers. I do think that Steele survives here and don’t have any strong leans on either side of this game. This game has some of the lowest interest on Thursday’s card. 

Miami Marlins +168 @ New York Mets -200

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Roddery Munoz (R) vs. Luis Severino (R)

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing out to left at 12-15 mph.

Luis Severino has been extremely solid against right-handed hitters over the last month and overall has been a solid pitcher for this Mets rotation in 2024. He has the occasional bad game and has had walk issues against lefties in the past, but he has strung together a few good starts in the last month. Unfortunately for him, he got roughed up for 5 ER by this Miami team back on May 18th. This Miami team is so frustrating to take starting pitchers against them, as they don’t look like they profile well on paper, they have players that strike out in bunches, and they are one of the lowest walk teams in baseball over the last month. I don’t think there’s too much upside for Severino here – a “good in real life” game is certainly on the table and he should get ample run support.

The Mets are one of a few teams that have an implied run total of 5 on Thursday’s card. Robbery Munoz has been AWFUL against lefties this season (0.588 ISO / 0.549 wOBA / 66% hard contact) and has given up 10 runs across his last two starts. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil are all serviceable lefties to go to. Hopefully the Mets get another 1-2 lefties in here if they can (a DJ Stewart would help), as Munoz’s main struggles are coming from this handedness. Mets are a top five fringe stack team on the whole day and definitely in the top five when you filter to just the night games. 

Philadelphia Phillies -118 @ Boston Red Sox +100

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (R) vs. Tanner Houck (R)

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing out to the Green Monster at 12-15 mph. Very solid hitting weather.

Tanner Houck hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in a single start since May 10th where he gave up three to Washington. He’ll face a tough test with Philly today, who have five batters seeing righties very well over the last month. Houck’s strikeout stuff will work to the righties but the entire team in general is only striking out 18% of the time to right-handed pitching. I’m fine with backing Harper or Schwarber, or even David Dahl, but probably off the Houck stuff with this nice weather in Boston. Harper has seven hits in his last four games with a double and a homer while Schwarber continues to mash against his former team (3 hits for 2 homers in the last two games).

Aaron Nola has been equally as good and hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in a game since May 8th. His early season struggles against lefties are seemingly gone over the last month, but could they resurface again here? There are three lefties that have very good numbers against right-handed pitching over the last month on this Red Sox team (Duran, Devers, David Hamilton). If Nola makes it through those three, he should have a smooth start. Note that Masataka Yoshida is another lefty in this lineup that doesn’t have a sample size because he’s returning from injury, but that’s another bat that could do well. Aaron Nola has only allowed 6+ hits in a single start twice this season.