If you’re betting on the MLB June 14th...

New York Yankees -156 @ Boston Red Sox +132

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Luis Gil (R) vs. Brayan Bello (R)

Temps in the high 70s with winds blowing out to left at 10 mph. Considering it’s extremely early in the day, it’s hard to be positive about the outlook of this game playing without some rain interrupting things. At this point, it is difficult to tell if we’re going to get a delay or postponement, but those things are definitely in the cards. Please refer to the discord in a few hours for updates.

The Yankees have the 3rd-highest implied run total on Friday’s card (5.4 runs). Brayan Bello has had a rough past month, giving up 3+ ER in five-straight starts. He’ll now have to face a New York team that has six batters seeing right-handed pitching at above average clips. Bellos has been much worse against left-handed hitters – Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo (revenge narrative) set up wonderfully here and could be top bats on this card if this game plays out. Anthony Rizzo finally broke out of his slump with a home run on Thursday, he’s in play here as well. Obviously everyone and their mom is going to play Aaron Judge tonight. I personally don’t love the spot because Bello has been very good against righties, but Judge’s low ground ball rate should at least keep him in play.

Boston Red Sox bats come in with a decently high run total against Luis Gil, which is a head scratcher. This dude has been downright filthy this season, allowing a total of 17 runs on the entire season across thirteen starts. Gil has recorded 17+ pitching outs in eight-straight starts and is sporting an elite 35.6% strikeout rate. Jarren Duran, David Hamilton, and Rafael Devers are all seeing right-handed pitching well, but I’m just not willing to go here even if the weather clears up. I respect what Gil brings to the table and think the Yankees, weather permitting, should dominate.

Miami Marlins +138 @ Washington Nationals -164

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: TBD vs. MacKenzie Gore (L) 

Temps in the 80s with winds blowing in from left at 5-7 mph. There is rain in the area but they most likely play through light stuff for a few hours.

Max Meyer is expected to return for the Marlins and start Friday’s game. Meyer had three starts under his belt back in April, where he recorded two quality starts, two wins, and only allowed four runs across those three games. We’ll see what they end up doing tonight, as the Marlins have yet to make an announcement at the time of writing this. CJ Abrams is back on track after a rough May – he is currently rocking a seven game hitting streak that features two home runs, two doubles, and a triple in the last week.

MacKenzie Gore has been an all around solid pitcher and never gets the credit he deserves. He is very good against right-handed hitters and brings a 26% K% to the table against this handedness over the last month. What teams keep trying to do is platoon nine righties against him – that is the exact opposite of what they should be doing. Gore has been much worse against lefties this season and over the last month has pretty atrocious numbers against them (0.360 ISO / 0.495 wOBA / 10% walk rate). Considering Jazz Chisholm is the only projected lefties today in this Marlins lineup, I’m going to go out and say Gore should have a very good “in real life” game, as I don’t think the strikeouts will be there today (MIA 17.3% K% against left-handed pitchers is very respectable).

Philadelphia Phillies +108 @ Baltimore Orioles -126

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez (L) vs. Kyle Bradish (R)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing in from left at 8-10 mph. There is rain up and down the Northeast coast on Friday evening. There is at least some risk in the area and they most likely play through rain, but just need to state that every stadium that is hosting a game on the east coast has at least some rain heading their way.

Outside of one 5 ER start, Kyle Bradish has looked very strong over the last six weeks of his 2024 season. He’s going to see a Philly team that strikes out at just 17% against righties over the last month. I do think that Bradish and his 34% collective strikeout rate can still get some guys to whiff on this team, but the main point to get across here is that he’s just a dang good pitcher that induces a lot of ground balls and doesn’t give up much damage. Edmundo Sosa is the only batter on this roster who has hit a home run against Bradish lifetime. No real interest in Phillies bats.

There’s a reason that this game has such a low game total and Ranger Suarez is a huge part of that reason. Suarez is still sporting an ERA under 2 (1.81) and will face an Orioles team that is a bit worse against lefties than they are against righties. They still have bats that crush lefties, so I’ll at least name them but won’t necessarily consider them great plays. Adley Rutschman is seeing lefties much better this season than righties (0.280 ISO / 0.442 wOBA / 15% K%) while Jorge Mateo sees this handedness the best on the team over the last month (0.364 ISO / 0.413 wOBA / 55% hard contact). Austin Hays was unplayable at the beginning of the year and is now slowly starting to turn things around while Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one total base in fourteen of the last fifteen games. 

Cleveland Guardians +116 @ Toronto Blue Jays -136

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen (L) vs. Kevin Gausman (R)

Kevin Gausman is a story of two different pitchers in 2024. Either he completely blanks the opposing team and records a bunch of strikeouts, or he gets shelled and gives up a lot of damage to opposing lefties. Strikeouts will be minimal here against a Guardians team that is striking out just 14.6% of the time against right-handed pitching over the last month. Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, and Jose Ramirez are the main bats to look at here, but it’s hard to really have a strong lean on anything besides that. It does feel like Gausman is one of the only pitchers that owns Jose Ramirez, who is just 4/20 lifetime with one extra base hit and five strikeouts. Gausman may give up a few runs but all in all should get the job done here with a rough floor of strikeout opportunities.

Logan Allen has had his fair share of struggles against right-handed hitters over the last month. He has given up 7 ER twice in his last six starts but will face a Toronto team that has been AWFUL against left-handed pitching over the last month and for the majority of the season. Vlad Guerrero and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are the only two hitters in this projected lineup that have an ISO of 0.150 or higher against this handedness recently. While the Blue Jays don’t strike out in general and shouldn’t in this matchup, I just can’t justify trusting in this side even though Logan Allen has not been good. A classic case of why baseball can just be really weird sometimes.

San Diego Padres -112 @ New York Mets -104

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Matt Waldron (R) vs. Sean Manaea (L)

This one has the scariest weather among the east coast games. With New York getting the brunt of the storms and the heavier rain, there’s either a really strong chance they late start this one late or postpone things entirely. Check back in the discord and get our thoughts on this one in the afternoon.

Manaea’s strikeout stuff has been awesome recently (26.7%), but the damage given up has also surfaced. Sean has given up 11 runs over his last two starts including a 6 ER barrage from the Phillies late in his start during the London series. If this game plays, he’s not going to have a high strikeout output, as San Diego is whiffing at one of the lowest rates in baseball against lefties over the last month (just 14.6%). If Jurickson Profar is in, I like that bat. I also don’t mind Donovan Solano or Ha-Seong Kim. Weather still probably interrupts this spot.

Matt Waldron hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in a single start since May 5th. He’s been lights out and is carrying a 28.2% collective K% into this matchup against a Mets team that has been iffy against right-handed pitching. Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and Mark Vientos are all above average bats here while Lindor continues to stay hot over the last week and a half. With the rain, minimal damage given up recently, and good strike out stuff, I’m going to stay off this Mets squad. Can’t touch Waldron given the weather risks at any point in the evening.