If you're betting on the MLB June 17th...

St. Louis Cardinals -148 @ Miami Marlins +136

Game Total: 7 | Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray (R) vs. Braxton Garrett (L) 

We start Monday’s card off with a dome game in the FLA.

Braxton Garrett has had a rough go of things lately. He’s allowed 6+ hits in four of the last five starts and 4+ ER four times in six starts this season. The main way to attack Garrett is with right-handed hitters that preferably have low ground ball rates. Thankfully you get the core of this order with exactly that – Mayan Winn, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are all smacking lefties around and all have ground ball rates under 45%. Dylan Carlson is 5/8 lifetime with a double in this matchup. The hitters above are slightly above-average compared to the rest of this card, but we have a ton of insanely good weather spots that will knock them down the list a bit.

The Marlins have the lowest-implied run total on the card at 3.2 runs. Sonny Gray has been smacked around a bit over the last month (giving up 3+ ER four times in seven starts) but really turned it around in his last outing against Pittsburgh. The collective strikeout rate of 34.5% has stayed consistent throughout the damage and will see a Miami team that has five batters whiffing at a 25% clip or higher to righties over the last month. Gray has had his walk issues against lefties over the last month (18.8%) but this Miami team walks at one of the lowest clips in baseball recently (just 3.6%). Sonny deserves to be one of the aces we look at and back today.

San Diego Padres +166 @ Philadelphia Phillies -182

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Randy Vasquez (R) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (L)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to center at 10-12 mph. 

Sanchez usually does really well inducing ground balls and while he may allow baserunners (7+ hits in six of the last eight starts), it doesn’t usually result in runs given up. I say all that to lean into the take that his ground ball stuff just won’t work today. While the Padres are generally still not clicking on all cylinders against left-handed pitching, they A) now have four guys in the lineup hitting lefties at an above-average clip (Profar, Solano, Kim, Merrill), B) have six batters hitting ground balls at a 40% clip or lower and C) collectively strike out at just 15.2% against lefties over the last month – one of the lowest clips in the league against a handedness. While Sanchez hasn’t necessarily given up much damage like mentioned above, it’s very hot here with winds blowing out that will have an effect on this start. I am a fan of Profar, Solano, and Kim in this matchup specifically while we can’t discount what Fernando Tatis’ last month has looked like (he hasn’t really hit lefties all that well through the hitting streak). Tatis has a home run in this matchup.

The Phillies have the 2nd-highest implied run total on Monday’s card with 5.5 runs. Randy Vasquez has given up 3+ ER in five of eight starts this year. Trea Turner is expected to be reinstated from the IL and will join the top of this lineup that definitely is in need of another bat against a right-handed pitcher. This Phillies team has five hitters in the lineup with above-average numbers against righties over the last month. All signs are pointing to this team getting to Vasquez one way or another, so it’s an important spot to get right. He’s technically giving up more power to righties over the last month (ISO of 0.236) but is allowing more baserunners, the majority of them being lefties (0.450 wOBA is entering horribly bad status). Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the main bats we want here while David Dahl is absolutely crushing at the bottom of the order and should be another bat to consider. We shouldn’t even hesitate to roster Turner, I think he’s a full go in this matchup right away. If we get Rafael Marchan behind the dish instead of Garrett Stubbs, I’d be interested in that spot as well (Marchan hit a homer in extras on Friday). The Phillies deserve to be a top three stack on this card.  

Cincinnati Reds +170 @ Pittsburgh Pirates -186

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Carson Spiers (R) vs. Paul Skenes (R)

Temps in the 90s with winds blowing right to left across the field at 5 mph.

IT’S PAUL SKENES DAY!! Skenes takes the mound on a hot day in Pittsburgh and has recorded 18+ pitching outs in four of his six starts this season. He has not walked more than one batter since his first outing and has recorded 8+ strikeouts in four of six starts in 2024. Over the last month this Reds team is striking out at a 24.4% clip against right-handed pitching. There are four guys in the lineup that strike out over 25% (ELDC, Steer, India, Benson). Skenes will bring strikeout upside on his own, so I do think 8-9-10 Ks are in play here. The Reds have the 3rd-lowest implied run total on the day and are of no interest to me.

Graham Ashcraft down, Carson Spiers up. The Triple-A prospect was called up for the Pirates and threw almost six innings of shutdown long-relief against the Cubs last weekend. He’s been stretched out as a starter this year already so we should expect him to go close to 90-95 pitches if all goes well. This Pirates team is coming home from Coors, where teams leaving usually end up struggling a bit. Pittsburgh is also sporting a 25.2% strikeout rate against righties over the last month, something that Spiers could take advantage of. Oneil Cruz has five hits over his last three games while Bryan Reynolds is on a 14-game hitting streak. Rowdy Tellez represents a bat with the lowest strikeout rate on this Pirates team (14.3%). The Pirates technically have the 6th-highest implied run total on Monday’s card (4.8 runs, tied with ATL)…I’m not sure I can call them a top five offense today but they may be a fringe top 5.

Boston Red Sox +116 @ Toronto Blue Jays -126

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (L)

Dome game with a low total compared to most games on this card.

Nick Pivetta has been very up and down since his return to the Boston rotation. Walks have been an issue recently, he’s allowed 2+ in four-straight starts. Pivetta’s numbers to righties are pretty respectable outside of the 24% ground ball rate, most of the damage done has been from lefties who have low strikeout rates. You don’t have a ton of that on this Blue Jays offense, but Spencer Horwitz is a guy who has a low strikeout rate and high walk rate. Daulton Varsho has the power numbers against righties but swings through them a ton. I don’t expect a lot of strikeouts from Pivetta and would consider an under. This spot just screams mid on both sides.

The Red Sox beat up on the Yankees on both Saturday and Sunday, but the Saturday performance is what I want to highlight here. They were facing an above-average left-handed pitcher in Carlos Rodon, who has had his issues against right-handed hitters over the last month. Tyler O’Neill had a great day as the power platoon guy while Wong, Rafaela, Duran, and Devers all had strong evenings. They’ll face a southpaw in Yusei Kikuchi today that has definitely been susceptible to right-handed hitters recently (0.170 ISO / 0.355 wOBA / 16% K%). He will have an above-average opportunity for strikeouts here (BOS 28.8% K%) so while that is good, there are guys that could definitely take him yard here. Love Tyler O’Neill as that boom/bust home run option while Rob Refsnyder, Connor Wong, Jamie Westbrook are all serviceable. Rafaela has quietly hit safely in five-straight games and has eleven hits in that time frame. Red Sox could be a fun team to target that will certainly be contrarian this evening.

Detroit Tigers +185 @ Atlanta Braves -204

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Reese Olson (R) vs. Max Fried (L)

Temps in the 90s with winds blowing in from left-center at 10 mph.

Max Fried will face a Tigers offense that has the 2nd-lowest implied run total on Monday’s card (3.4). The Tigers may not be striking out a lot (18.2%), but Max Fried should be able to mow down a team that is collectively seeing lefties at a below average clip (seven batters with an ISO of 0.130 or lower over the last month). Jake Rogers and Justyn-Henry Malloy have done very well in low sample sizes against lefties recently, but Max Fried is just a different level of pitcher. I know Fried got roughed up a bit against the Orioles last time out but he is right up there next to Sonny Gray and Paul Skenes in the ace tier today.

Like mentioned in the previous game, the Braves and Pirates have the same implied run total just outside the top 5 (4.8). Reese has electric stuff to righties but over the last month has been leaky to left-handed hitters (leaky, more like a waterfall with an ISO of 0.388 and wOBA of an egregious 0.574). Jarred Kelenic and Matt Olson are home run candidates in this spot while Marcell Ozuna continues to crush right-handed pitching. Kelenic has home runs in back-to-back games entering Monday night. Those two Braves are a really solid mini-stack to roll with.

Is this the last game of the series!?! Game 5 outlook via the Pikkit Community: