If you're betting on the MLB June 18th...

St. Louis Cardinals -145 @ Miami Marlins +133

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Lance Lynn (R)  vs. Roddery Munoz (R) 

We start off Tuesday’s mega-slate in a pitcher-friendly dome game in Miami. This series went to extras yesterday, where the Cardinals were able to squeak out a win in the 12th inning. Roddery Munoz has been a very annoying guy to try and figure out. One moment he looks like a Cy Young candidate and the next, he’s giving up 10 ER across two starts. After blanking the Mets in his previous outing, it’s hard to endorse this Cardinals offense with a ton of confidence. Lefties are Munoz’s biggest liability (18.2% K% / 13% walk rate / 0.389 ISO / 0.456 wOBA / 64% hard contact) – this will leave the door open for guys like Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman at the top of this lineup. Munoz has been very respectable against right-handed hitters, so I’m off those guys today.

Lance Lynn is a pitcher that we know is very solid against right-handed hitters and can show tendencies to give up quite a bit of damage to lefties. Over the last month, he’s kept the majority of things in check, although the wake rate to lefties at 14.1% has caused him to walk at least 2 batters in each of his past four starts. Lynn has also only recorded 18+ pitching outs three times in his fourteen starts this season. Jazz Chisholm is the main candidate I want here. Chisholm comes into Tuesday evening 4/6 lifetime against Lynn with a home run. Burger, Sanchez, Anderson, and Bell have all homered against Lynn in their careers.

San Diego Padres +122 @ Philadelphia Phillies -133

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Michael King (R) vs. Aaron Nola (R)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds out to center at 10 mph – strong hitting weather in somewhat of a pitcher’s duel. 

Aaron Nola has recorded 5+ strikeouts in nine of fourteen starts this season. With that said, he’s seen his strikeout rate dip across the board from 21.9% to 18.3%, and his clip against lefties is now all the way down to an abysmal 13.9% for an ace-level pitcher. On top of all that, this Padres team is just striking out at a 14.9% clip over the last month against righties – one of the lowest clips in the MLB. Not touching Aaron Nola numbers today, betting on Fernando Tatis to do some offensive damage is a great way to approach this one in a minimal fashion.

Michael King comes into Tuesday evening with awesome numbers against right-handed hitters (37% K% / 0.057 ISO / 0.204 wOBA) and shakier numbers against left-handed hitters (10% walk rate / 0.163 ISO / 32% ground ball rate). King’s strikeout floor will be lower than normal due to Philly’s 18.5% K% against righties over the last thirty days. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and David Dahl are all bats I can get behind today from the left side. Alec Bohm has eleven hits over his last four games, including a homer and three doubles in that timeframe. Kyle Schwarber has reached double-digit fantasy points in seven of his last eight games with five home runs in the last week (June Schwarber is here).

Cincinnati Reds -122 @ Pittsburgh Pirates +112

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo (L) vs. Bailey Falter (L)

Temps in the low 90s with winds blowing in from left at 5 mph.

Falter has given up 3+ ER in five of his last eight starts and has been pretty rough around the edges when facing right-handed hitting teams. This Reds team is going to platoon eight batters with one lefty (TJ Friedl) this evening and will profile nicely in some spots. Spencer Steer has the best numbers against lefties over the last month (0.500 ISO / 0.650 wOBA / 53% hard contact). Stuart Fairchild should hit leadoff here while Elly De La Cruz will hit second – both of those bats are extremely solid in this matchup. Tyler Stephenson’s power numbers against lefties have struggled, but historically he hits this handedness well. Keep an eye on the bottom of this lineup, as Jonathan India and Luke Maile (if in the lineup) are nice value pieces to get to. Steer is 4/6 with a home run against Falter lifetime.

Nick Lodolo has recorded 18+ pitching outs in five of the last seven starts but has seen his strikeout rate dip pretty significantly over the last month (25.5% on the year to just 18.6% collectively L30 days). Right-handed hitters with low strikeout rates will benefit the most here on this Pirates team. Ke’Bryan Hayes has the best collective numbers against lefties on this team while Nick Gonzales and Connor Joe are both extremely reliable.

Seattle Mariners +106 @ Cleveland Guardians -116

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller (R) vs. Triston McKenzie (R)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds slightly out to left at 5 mph. There are chances of heavier storms early in this one – so we should expect a late start and a full game afterward. 

Triston McKenzie draws the start and has given up 2+ ER in four-straight starts. The walk rate has been concerning lately, he’s actually walked 2+ batters in 12/13 starts this season (10.3% collective walk rate in the last 30 days). McKenzie’s biggest struggles have been against right-handed hitters the last month (0.469 ISO / 0.525 wOBA) – a place where Seattle just isn’t going to profile all that well to take advantage. Julio Rodriguez is a boom/bust candidate while Haniger doesn’t really bring the power against this handedness. Haniger, Moore, and Canzone have all homered off McKenzie in the past.

Bryce Miller’s dominance against right-handed hitters continues – he’s been one of the best starting pitchers against righties in the MLB all season. The problem with that take is that he’s going to face 1, maybe 2 Guardians from that side of the plate today. Where Miller’s profile is fantastic against righties, everything falls off dramatically against lefties (16% K% / 32% ground ball rate / 0.196 ISO). Josh Naylor, Kyle Manzardo, and Daniel Schneemann are all seeing right-handed pitching well over the last month. Steven Kwan is the standout here – over his last 42 games he is hitting 0.404 with an OPS of 0.995. To put this into context: if Kwan struck out in each of his next 38 plate appearances, he would still lead the Majors in batting average. The dude is on another planet right now and sets up very well today against Miller.

Arizona Diamondbacks +104 @ Washington Nationals -114

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Slade Cecconi (R) vs. Jake Irvin (R)  

Temps in the high 80s with winds blowing out to left at 10 mph.

Jake Irving has been a stud recently, recording 18+ pitching outs in five-straight starts and 10/14 outings this season. He has not allowed more than 2+ ER since May 17th and had gone eight-straight starts without giving up more than 5.5 hits until his start last week (gave up 6 vs. DET). Over the last month, this dude is just dominant. If you want to target anything here, you play lefties that don’t hit the ball on the ground and have low strikeout rates. Corbin Carroll is the only batter that makes any sort of sense here. Christian Walker has four home runs over his last five games.

Cecconi comes into Tuesday night with a 4.88 xFIP on the season. A lot of his numbers are extremely dicey over the last month (only a 16% K% / ISO over 0.550 to righties / 0.483 collective wOBA), so we should expect some runs from this Nationals offense. Washington’s wRC+ against right-handed pitching has accelerated dramatically over the last month and features 5 bats turning the corner into above-average hitters against righties. Cecconi has given up 3+ ER in four of his last five starts. Lane Thomas has a ten-game hitting streak going with home runs in three-straight over the weekend. CJ Abrams also has a ten-game hitting streak with five doubles in the last week and a half.