If you're betting on the MLB June 19th...

Arizona Diamondbacks -153 @ Washington Nationals +140

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt (R) vs. Patrick Corbin (L)  

Temps in the high 90s with winds blowing out to left at 10-12 mph.

Patrick Corbin takes the mound today and has recorded 16+ pitching outs in six-straight starts. Corbin has been very up and down lately, so it feels like we’re either going to watch him pitch a shutout or give up 5+ runs. This Arizona team has the 4th-highest implied run total on the card today (5.4) and should profile pretty well against a left-handed pitcher. Ketel Marte is in an amazing spot today and is one of the best hitters on the entire day (0.533 ISO / 0.533 wOBA / 11% K% / 80% hard contact). Gabriel Moreno, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel, and Randal Grichuk are all crushing lefties over the last month and should all be in consideration. Even Blaze Alexander at the bottom of the lineup has an awesome profile if he doesn’t strike out. Marte is an astounding 5/9 lifetime with 2 home runs against Corbin.

Brandon Pfaadt has recorded 18+ pitching outs in ten of fourteen starts this season. He had a rough beginning of June but bounced back nicely against the Angels in his last outing. Lane Thomas’ hitting streak came to an end, but both he and CJ Abrams are still crushing righties over the last week and a half. Abrams is rocking an eleven-game hitting streak. All-in-all, Pfaadt should do just fine here and should get ample run support.

Seattle Mariners +116 @ Cleveland Guardians -136

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo (R) vs. Tanner Bibee (R)

Temps in the high 80s. There is some rain in the area this afternoon, but they should be able to play through it.

Tanner Bibee is coming off a 4 ER game and has given up ten runs across his last four starts. He has also recorded 6+ strikeouts in five-straight outings and will face a Seattle team today that has a collective 25.5% K% against right-handed pitching over the last month. There are obviously always concerns with Bibee against lefty-hitters – I could see Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, or Dominic Canzone running into a solo shot. Bibee should have himself a solid outing all things considered.

Bryan Woo has completed six full innings in four-straight starts and will now face a Cleveland Guardians squad that doesn’t strike out against righties (just 15.5%). I still think that Woo is pitching over his head against lefties (a handedness he has historically struggled against), so going with Kwan, Ramirez, and Naylor is still in play here. Kwan is riding a 12-game hitting streak and has now improved his season batting average to a whopping 0.392.

Baltimore Orioles +151 @ New York Yankees -165

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Cade Povich (R) vs. Gerrit Cole (R)

Temps in the 80s with winds blowing in from right at 10 mph.

Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees!  He was lights out in his rehab starts with a 19:0 K:BB ratio over 12 innings (3 starts). We should expect him to go a good 85-90 pitches here against a Baltimore squad who has some solid batters against righties recently. Gunnar Henderson is a strike out or home run candidate while Ryan Mountcaslte, Anthony Santander, and even Ramon Urias are all hitting righties well in June. Urias is 6/13 lifetime against Cole with a home run. I’ll probably sit back and enjoy the popcorn on this one to see how things play out.

Southpaw Cade Povich will take on a Yankees team that has some hitters smacking around left-handed pitching. The big asterisk here is that Aaron Judge is expected to miss at least today after getting hit in the hand with a pitch last night. That obviously changes things completely for this New York offense, as they’ll most likely bump up Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup against a lefty. I am on board with playing Torres, Stanton, and Soto, but that is as far as I’ll go against Povich, who doesn’t really have a strong enough sample size to feel good about his splits one way or the other.

Boston Red Sox +118 @ Toronto Blue Jays -128

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello (R) vs. Kevin Gausman (R)

Kevin Gausman has been a bit all over the place this season but has generally been solid against righties. His weaknesses are coming from left-handed hitters who have lower strikeout rates. Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers profile the best here. I think this one is as simple as that – not much to discuss.

Brayan Bello has been THROUGH IT recently, giving up 3+ ER in six-straight outings. Main struggles have come from lefties, a spot where Daulton Varsho could profile really nicely. Spencer Horwitz could also do well at the top of the order. There are six batters in this Blue Jays lineup that have ground ball rates under 50%, which could make things difficult for Bello. No Bo Bichette (landed on IL yesterday), so we may see a weirder lineup from this Jays team today. Ernie Clement is quietly smashing with ten hits in his last five games.  

Tampa Bay Rays +146 @ Minnesota Twins -159

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Taj Bradley (R) vs. Joe Ryan (R) 

Temps in the low 70s with winds blowing across the field left to right at 5 mph.

Taj Bradley is coming off an elite 11 K smash-mouth performance against the Cubs last time out. He’ll face a Twins team that has six batters with above-average numbers against right-handed pitching over the last month. Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa are on other planets right now, so I’m fine with going back to the well with both of them (Correa has 23 hits in his last 9 games). Bradley probably falls short in the strikeout department today and gives up a few runs.

In theory, we should get a pitcher’s duel here. We never really know what we’re going to get with Joe Ryan, who has allowed 2+ runs in the last three starts and has the occasional outing where he gives up 4-5 runs. Ryan has been elite to righties over the last month with a 31.9% K%, something that should come to fruition in this spot, as the Rays are collectively punching out at a 24.7% clip. Brandon Lowe may do well for the Rays, but I do think that Ryan strikeouts are in play today.