If you're betting on the MLB June 20th...

Los Angeles Dodgers -220 @ Colorado Rockies +184

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone (R) vs. Ty Blach (L)

Temps nearing 90 with winds blowing out to center at 10 mph. Delays will be likely here, but with Colorado’s strong grounds crew and a strong reputation to push through things and play, I’m not too worried although I will say a delay is quite possible.

The Dodgers have the highest-implied run total on Thursday’s card for what feels like the last two weeks in a row (7.5 runs). They walk into one of their best matchups yet against Ty Blach, who has given up 2+ ER in six-straight outings. Blach has also allowed 6+ hits in six of seven most recent outings and will face a Dodgers team that is actually hitting left-handed pitching much better than how they hit right-handed pitching. Over the last month, there are eight batters on this Dodgers team that have an above-average ISO of 0.160 or higher against lefties (four batters with an ISO of 0.300 or higher). Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith are elite bats here (both top two on the day) while Freddie Freeman can rake lefties from the left side. Pages, Rojas, Kike Hernandez, Miguel Vargas, and Chris Taylor all have great power numbers against lefties lately. The one name that I haven’t brought up yet is Shohei Ohtani, who will hit leadoff once again against a lefty. We faded this spot against Austin Gomber the other day due to the fact that there were just better profiling hitters on this Dodgers team against lefties. We have that same circumstance today and while Gomber gave up a bomb to Ohtani (worth noting that Gomber was awful against lefties), Ty Blach is much better against left-handed hitters over the last month and in 2024 than Gomber is. Play Shohei if you want, I’m not going to say no, but I will say that I’ll take Teo and Will Smith 10/10 times over.

The Rockies come in with the 3rd-highest implied run total on the day (4.9 runs). They’ll see Gavin Stone, who shut this team out back in LA earlier in June and recorded six punchouts in the process. Stone’s primary pitch is the sinker, something he throws 25.1% of the time. Over the last month, this Rockies team (in a limited sample size) is awful against the sinker. Stone also throws the changeup 24% of the time, something that only Ryan McMahon is seeing well on this Colorado team this season. For the time being, it does feel like Stone has fixed some major issues that he experienced last year. I’m not overly bullish on the Rockies, but they have kept things competitive this series – I’ll still get behind some Ezequiel Tovar, who hits righties at the best clip on this team. I’m not sure I really can get behind much else in confidence. Note that Charlie Blackmon (hamstring) and Nolan Jones (illness) are day-to-day and could miss the final game of this series.

Kansas City Royals -144 @ Oakland Athletics +122

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo (R) vs. Mitch Spence (R)

Temps in the mid 60s with winds blowing out to center at 8-10 mph. Pitcher-friendly park.

Mitch Spence has been very serviceable for this Oakland rotation. Sure, he’s given up 4+ ER in two of the last three starts, but I’m not sure how much I really like this Kansas City Royals team in such a pitcher-friendly park. The Royals also cannot get enough lefties in the lineup to beat a right-handed pitcher – something that has haunted them at times this season. Obviously Bobby Witt is a fine bat to look at here while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasqantino compliment that play…but the Royals are just more fun when they are facing lefties rather than righties.

Seth Lugo has been going through a rougher start to June than he probably wanted. He has given up 11 runs over his last three starts and has allowed 6+ hits in six of his last eight outings. We were heavier on the A’s against left-handed pitching last night, but there are still guys that profile decently well here. JJ Bleday continues to be the hottest hitter on this team and there are four righties that have very low ground ball rates against right-handed pitching that can rattle Lugo’s start a bit. This will be a popular pitcher play today and I’m not sure how much I can get behind it with Lugo’s extreme dip in strikeouts over the last month (20% down to 15.4% collectively).

Baltimore Orioles +124 @ New York Yankees -146

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Cole Irvin (L) vs. Luis Gil (R)

Temps in the low 90s with winds blowing right to left at 10 mph. 

The Orioles will take on Luis Gil tonight in a heavyweight bout. Gil’s 29.1% collective K% ranks among the slate’s more consistent clips from the pitcher pool. Gil shut this team down back on May 1st and while the damage given up since then has been kept in check, there’s at least a bit of concern with his 10% walk rate and quite a few hitters on this O’s team hitting right-handed pitching well over the last month. I’m not saying I’m backing either side necessarily, but I think this is very similar to Cole’s start vs. this team on Wednesday night. Anthony Santander or Gunnar Henderson may run into one, but we shouldn’t be overly bullish here. Henderson stole two bags yesterday and will look to stay aggressive on the basepaths.

This Yankees team has the 5th-highest implied run total on the card (4.7 runs). They’ll see Cole Irvin, who has given up 2+ ER in four of his last five starts. This New York team should absolutely smash the southpaw – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres are all home run candidates, as Cole has been that bad against right-handed hitters over the last month. No Juan Soto for me, as Irvin has been much better against lefties. Give me the Yankees to be the better stack than the Rockies today.

San Francisco Giants -102 @ St. Louis Cardinals -116

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Keaton Winn (R) vs. Andre Pallante (R) 

Temps in the low 90s with winds blowing out to left at 5-7 mph. Note that this game is not being played in St. Louis, but in Rickwood Park, the oldest ballpark in the United States. This stadium hosted the “Golden Age” of the Negro Leagues between 1920 and 1948 and has incredible dimensions that you don’t see anymore in the current game. This field used to be 470 to the left field wall and 500 feet to center, but the dimensions were altered for tonight’s game specifically a bit – now down to 325 / 400 / 332 with a short porch in right and very tall fences (approaching Fenway numbers). We should expect a moderate reduction to HRs, strong uptick to doubles in the gaps, and little to no difference in actual run effects.

With that said, Keaton Winn has given up 3+ ER in five-straight starts and has been awful over the last month in most statistical categories. What hasn’t taken a dip is the strikeout rate, which still collectively sits at a strong 27% clip. Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, and Paul Goldschmidt are seeing right-handed hitters the best here while I don’t mind Brendan Donovan as another low strikeout bat. Nolan Arenado left yesterday’s game and longtime Giant Brandon Crawford is currently in the projected lineup (interesting revenge narrative).

Andre Pallante gets the start for the Cardinals today. He has been very good to left-handed hitters and really only has weaknesses against righties he can’t strike out. This Giants team is not nearly as good against righties over the last month (they are much better against lefties recently). Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, and most notably Jorge Soler are all righties that should have chances to put the ball in play from the right side to disrupt Pallante.

Milwaukee Brewers -110 @ San Diego Padres -106

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Bryse Wilson (R) vs. Adam Mazur (R) 

Temps in the high 60s with winds blowing in from left at 5-7 mph. Pitcher-friendly park.

Adam Mazur comes in with alarmingly bad numbers against left-handed hitters (0.528 wOBA / 0.227 ISO / 3% K%). Right back to Christian Yelich and Brice Turang in this spot. I also like Willy Adames as a guy who has a low ground ball rate and is seeing right-handed pitching well. Pitcher-friendly ballpark will keep this team out of the top five offenses today, but do really like the Turang/Yelich combo.

Bryse Wilson is a tale of two stories – he is extremely solid against righties and is extremely subpar against lefties with alarming red flags. Love Luis Arraez, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Cronenworth for the dads from the left side while Fernando Tatis’ numbers against righties might just overcome this matchup. Arraez is the best bat in this game while Yelich is the 2nd-best.