If you're betting on the MLB June 21st...

Arizona Diamondbacks +120 @ Philadelphia Phillies -142

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery (L) vs. Taijuan Walker (R)

Temps over 90 with winds blowing out to right-center at 10 mph. Nice hitting weather.

Taijuan Walker has allowed 3+ ER in six of nine starts this season with the majority of damage given up coming from left-handed hitters (0.263 ISO / 0.400 wOBA / 75% hard contact). With the walk rate all the way up at 10% collectively, Walker’s going to have a ton of issues handling a Diamondbacks team that also walks at an elite 9.4% clip as a team over the last month. Corbin Carroll is a really strong bat to look at here while Joc Pederson and Jake McCarthy are also very strong. Ketel Marte is the fourth bat for the snakes I would take, as he has the worst power numbers against righties on the team over the last month. Pederson is a sweet 11/26 with a homer in this matchup.

This Phillies team comes in with the 3rd-highest implied run total on Friday’s card. They’ll see Jordan Montgomery, who has been pretty awful in almost every single statistical category over the last month. Over the course of the whole season, he has had very respectable numbers against left-handed hitters. The one thing that has been consistent over the last month is the ground ball rate, which still sits in the 60% range. There are several bats on this Phillies team that are crushing lefties over the last month. Nick Castellanos has the best power numbers against lefties on this team (0.591 ISO / 0.561 wOBA) while Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper could both punish Jordan lefty on lefty. Trea Turner at least needs to be considered here as he ramps back up into full form at the top of the lineup. I really hope that they do the smart thing and put Edmundo Sosa in the outfield or sit Stott so they can get another strong power righty in there. If Sosa is in, he’s an absolutely awesome play for total bases or Hits/Runs/RBIs. Finally, Montgomery has allowed 6+ hits in four of seven starts for this Arizona team. The Phillies deserve to be a top five offense on the day. 

Chicago White Sox +152 @ Detroit Tigers -180

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde (R) vs. Jack Flaherty (R)

Temps in the high 80s with winds blowing in from right-center at 5 mph. There are storms in the area that could force them to start late, but the game should play in full.

Jack Flaherty hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 23rd, pitching 16+ consecutive innings without any damage. He has been awesome over the last month!

Please note: Flaherty received an injection for his back injury and was limited to just 73 pitches in his last start. He was also skipped in the rotation so there’s been a stint lately where the Tigers have opted to be a bit conservative with his pitch count. With the strikeout rate collectively sitting at 34%, he comes into an amazing spot against a White Sox team that he shouldn’t have too much trouble with. Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn, and Paul DeJong are all hitting righties well over the last month, but they all carry strikeout risk in this spot against Jack. If I knew or if we got word that Flaherty was full go here, I’d be rooting for this play immensely.

The Tigers will take on Erick Fedde, who has been awesome over the last month and basically awesome the entire season. His 24.6% strikeout rate over the last month matches the Detroit collective strikeout rate the last month to righties (24.6%). With the ground ball rate sitting at 57.5% over the last month, Fedde will most likely have just a few more starts with this White Sox team before being shipped to a contender. No interest in Tigers bats outside of Matt Vierling, Riley Greene, and Mark Canha (6/9 lifetime in this matchup with a homer). 

Tampa Bay Rays -124 @ Pittsburgh Pirates +106

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot (R) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (R)  

Temps peaking at 90 with slight winds out to left at 5 mph. We could late start as there are a few showers around first pitch. Once they clear, it’s time to play ball.

Ryan Pepiot has recorded 17+ pitching outs in eight of twelve starts this season. He’s had a rough go of things over the last month, giving up 2+ ER in six-straight starts and giving up 12 runs across his last three. The main issues have been against lefties who have low ground ball rates and preferably low strikeout numbers. You’re not going to find many low whiff guys on this team as a whole, but Rowdy Tellez meets the low K% (10.9%). Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are both very solid power lefties who carry some strikeout risk. With how iffy Pepiot has been lately, I’m hesitant to back a pitching outs number but could see him get there with strikeouts. Reynolds is riding a 16-game hitting streak right now and has four extra base hits in his last three games.

Carmen Mlodzinski will start and be the opener for a Pirates bullpen game on Friday night. Completely fade this side of the ball and move on.

Atlanta Braves -116 @ New York Yankees -102

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale (L) vs. Carlos Rodon (L)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing in from right at 8 mph. There’s rain in the area during the game, so we need to circle back on this in a few hours to get a better look. Head to the discord for the final update.

Carlos Rodon’s role on this Yankees team has been pretty capped at 18 pitching outs (line is at 18.5 in most places, he’s only covered that in 3/15 while he’s covered 17.5 in 10/15). The Yankees are going to need Rodon to go deep in this game, as they used six relievers + Jose Trevino after Luis Gil fell apart on Thursday. Adam Duvall has the best numbers on this Braves team against left-handed pitching while Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna are just fine. Sean Murphy had a two-HR game on Wednesday (one of them was off a lefty), so he’s starting to wake up as well. Austin Riley has ten hits in his last six games. I still believe that Rodon will find a way to get through six complete innings and may give up a solo shot or two along the way.

Chris Sale will have a tough test today against this Yankees team. Sale pitching outs over 17.5 has been a wagon this year, but I worry there are just too many good hitters collectively against lefties in this lineup for me to trust this 100%. The Yankees are striking out at just 17.6% as a team to lefties over the last month – one of the lowest clips on Friday’s card. There are six above-average bats on this team against lefties in June (Soto, Judge, Stanton, Verdugo, Torres, Trevino). The low ground ball guys profile best – Judge, Stanton, Torres, Trevino). Keep on eye on Gleyber Torres, as he left yesterday’s game with an injury. LeMahieu has insane BvP here (7/10 w/ a HR).

Toronto Blue Jays +100 @ Cleveland Guardians -118

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Yariel Rodriguez (R) vs. Carlos Carrasco (R)

Temps in the 80s with winds blowing in from center at 5 mph.

Carlos Carrasco has failed to reach the sixth inning in every start since May 10th. He has given up 5+ ER in two of his last three starts and is only striking out 16.1% of the batters he has faced over the last month. This Toronto team brings a 14.9% K% collectively against righties in the past month, which will lead to a bunch of balls in play in this matchup. Carrasco’s ground ball rate is what is keeping him at bay right now. The problem with this is that there are six batters on this team that have a ground ball rate of 40% or lower in this spot. Davis Schneider and Daulto Varsho have the best power numbers against righties in June while Spencer Horwitz continues to be productive, recording hits in eight-straight games that he has started.

Yariel Rodriguez will most likely be reinstated from the IL to start on Friday evening. He was extremely dicey against right-handed hitters and was walking 11% of bats faced across the 72 batters he’s seen this season. He doesn’t have amazing numbers against lefties by any means, which is where the power is going to come from in this Guardians lineup. After beating up on Luis Castillo yesterday, they are going to see a pitcher who just won’t be able to strike out this team (14.3% K% collectively for Cleveland). Steven Kwan is on a 14-game hitting streak and has been a HRR wagon while Josh Naylor has three extra base hits in his last two games. The Guardians technically have the 5th-highest implied run total on the card (5) while the Jays have the 7th-highest (4.8). Both offenses should get the job done today.