If you're betting on the MLB June 24th...

Cleveland Guardians +102 @ Baltimore Orioles -120

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (R) vs. Cade Povich (L)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing in from left at 13-15 mph.

Cade Povich draws the start here and the southpaw will get to face a Cleveland team that is much worse against left-handed pitching. They have a collective ISO of just 0.087 against this handedness over the last month and it’s not like Povich is giving up a ton of damage (bad first start of 6 ER, last two starts he’s only given up a combined 1 ER). Povich does have control issues, so I don’t mind getting in on the Steven Kwan “let’s see how many times he can get on base” experiment. Kwan has three home runs in his past five games and has scored seven runs over his last five as well. Jose Ramirez has six-straight games with double-digit fantasy points and is in play here as well. The Guardians lost David Fry, their second-best hitter against lefties, to injury yesterday and it is unclear how much time, if any, he will miss.

Tanner Bibee has had a much better past month. He has recorded 6+ strikeouts in the last six starts and has done a decent job compared to the month of May keeping opposing offenses in check. The collective strikeout rate of 37!.1% from Bibee will be put to the test today, as Baltimore has a collective 19.8% whiff rate over the last month vs. righties. The Orioles also have eight bats in their order that have an ISO of 0.150 or higher against this handedness, one of the best collective wRC+ offenses in baseball against righties. Gunnar Henderson went 0/6 the last two days but had previously recorded 100+ combined fantasy points the previous three days – he is the best play on this team vs. right-handed pitching (shocker take, I know). Anthony Santander has recorded six homers over the last ten games and is right behind Gunnar. While I respect the strikeout stuff from Bibee, he’s definitely susceptible to lefty power if he can’t get those swings and misses. 

Philadelphia Phillies -178 @ Detroit Tigers +150

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (R) vs. Casey Mize (R)  

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing in from left at 5 mph.

Casey Mize is a guy that doesn’t generate a bunch of strikeouts (whiff rate at a collective 11.1% the last month), but he does a decent job stopping opposing righties with a solid 50% ground ball rate. He does have walk issues with lefties which turns into a leaky 0.170 ISO and 0.406 wOBA if he can’t induce ground balls. It’s a pretty awesome setup on paper for Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who both crushed over the weekend against the snakes. Alec Bohm has been extremely solid against right-handed pitching over the last month and had 15+ fantasy points Saturday and Sunday. Harper is riding an 8-game hitting streak with three homers and four doubles in that span. Philly technically has the 7th-highest implied run total on the day and deserve to be a fringe top five offense (4.6 implied total).

The Tigers shelled Jonathan Cannon yesterday for nine runs in the first two innings with several home runs from the lefties in their lineup. Aaron Nola has had issues against lefties in 2024, but his main struggles over the last month have actually come from the right side of the plate (0.234 ISO / 0.354 wOBA). Nola has given up eleven runs in his last two starts with most of it coming from Boston, who put eight up on him in one game. The strikeout rate against righties dipping from 26.6% on the year to 22% over the last month is not a great sign, but the opportunity for Ks here against a Tigers team that is whiffing 24.3% of the time against righties is reassuring. Matt Vierling is the best righty on righty bat to look at here while Riley Greene has the best numbers on the team against right-handed pitching (and hit a homer yesterday).

Seattle Mariners -104 @ Tampa Bay Rays -112

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo (R) vs. Taj Bradley (R)

This one definitely has the makings of a pitcher’s duel. Taj Bradley has a strong 26.5% collective strikeout rate, but is also giving up a ton of hard contact over the last month to opponents (52.8%). We have seen damage given up to both sides of the plate if he can’t get those strikeouts, but this is an interesting spot to face a Mariners team that is whiffing at a pretty high 25.9% clip. Josh Rojas and Dominic Canzone are your low strikeout guys on this Mariners side while Raleigh and Julio have taken Bradley yard in the past. Taj has walked at least 2 batters in four of his last five starts.

Bryan Woo had recorded four-straight quality starts before he left the game against Cleveland in just the fourth inning after giving up three runs (Woo had just 64 pitches in that outing). I think the Mariners are being cautious with their rotation, as it is one of the best in baseball. With that said, it’s tough to see how far he’ll actually go as he recovers from this forearm injury. Woo has really strong numbers against righties, but he is starting to regress back to his old ways against lefties. Josh Lowe has been on a tear recently and had six hits with two homers over the weekend. Brandon Lowe is day-to-day with a toe injury, so we’ll need to monitor his status. No righties to look at on this Rays team.

Pittsburgh Pirates -102 @ Cincinnati Reds -116

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter (L) vs. Carson Spiers (R)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to center at 5 mph. Very solid hitting park conditions today in Great American.

The Pirates have the 3rd-highest implied run total on Monday’s card (5.1). They’ll face Carson Spiers for the second time in the last week and will look to capitalize on the 4 ER they put up on him last time out. Spiers struggles against lefties he doesn’t strike out, so guys like Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Rowdy Tellez all profile really well. Reynolds currently has a 20-game hitting streak and has three homers in the last four games. Those three bats are a strong way to start your builds on FanDuel/DraftKings today.

The Reds have the 2nd-highest implied run total on Monday’s card (5.2) and unlike yesterday, I am 100% on this side today. Bailey Falter has allowed 2+ ER in four of his last five starts and only gave up 2 ER off 7 hits against this Reds team on June 18th. Just like Spiers, I don’t see the second time in the last week going well in this game environment. Spencer Steer leads the way here as a righty with an ISO of 0.353, wOBA of 0.618, and a ground ball rate of just 21% against left-handed pitching over the last month. Elly De La Cruz is finally profiling well against left-handed pitching and is one of the better plays on the MLB card in general today. Santiago Espinal, Jonathan India, and Luke Maile are all going to profile well for the Reds. If Stuart Fairchild is leading off, he’s one of the best value bats on the card. Steer is 5/8 with a home run in this matchup while Tyler Stephenson is 5/11 with a homer. The Reds deserve to be one of the best offenses of the day.

Toronto Blue Jays +120 @ Boston Red Sox -142

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt (R)  vs. Tanner Houck (R)

Temps in the mid 70s with winds blowing out to right at 10 mph. Nice Fenway hitting conditions.

Tanner Houck has recorded 5+ strikeouts in 12/15 starts this season. There are a few reasons why the market has a lower strikeout line for him on Monday. First and foremost, the Blue Jays are striking out at one of the lowest clips in baseball at 16.6% against righties over the last month. Houck also has just not crushed from a strikeout perspective recently but has been great everywhere else. While he’s only given up a home run to Daulto Varsho on this Jays team, there are several hitters in small sample sizes that have pieced him up for extra base hits (Schneider, Clement, Horwitz, IKF, and Vlad). Horwitz had a legacy game on Sunday with two homers while Vlad is starting to heat up against right-handed pitching (had two homers over the weekend). With the team’s success against Houck and the nice hitting conditions in Boston, I’m a bit less optimistic about Houck’s true pitcher fantasy ceiling.

The Blue Jays haven’t announced a starter yet as I’m writing this out, but I’m expecting to see Chris Bassitt take the mound against the Red Sox. Boston has the 6th-highest run total (4.7) on the card and this take specifically gets a lot better if Bassitt is actually the starter. We know that Chris is bad against lefties and will get roughed up against some of the best lefties in baseball over the last month. Jarren Duran has a 0.384 average, 0.443 OBP, 4 homers, and 21 runs over the last month and is crushing righties with an ISO of 0.254. Duran, Abreu, Devers, and Valdez are a very strong lefty Boston stack that should do very well in this matchup. Devers is 5/11 with two homers against Bassitt lifetime.