If you're betting on the MLB June 25th...

Cleveland Guardians +124 @ Baltimore Orioles -146

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen (L) vs. Cole Irvin (L)

Temps in the low 90s with winds blowing out to left at 10 mph. 

Logan Allen has not been able to record more than 3 strikeouts in a single start since May 24th (4 consecutive unders). His main struggles are coming against right-handed hitters that have low ground ball rates. Adley Rutschman profiles the best in this spot and frankly, everything falls through the floor after that. I don’t really understand why the Orioles have the 3rd-highest implied run total on the day. Wish I had more exposure to the weather here, but this Baltimore team is much better against righties and will also see one of the best bullpens in baseball once Logan Allen’s day is done.

Cole Irvin has relatively the same struggles as Allen against right-handed hitters (13% K% / 0.228 ISO / 0.400 wOBA /  27% ground ball rate). Basically same thing on offense here as well, as the Guardians don’t profile all that well against opposing lefties. Jose Ramirez, David Fry, and the man of the month Steven Kwan are the only bats I want to touch. Kwan has scored eight runs in his last six games with three homers in that timeframe. Ramirez has recorded double-digit fantasy points in seven-straight games.

Philadelphia Phillies -124 @ Detroit Tigers +106

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez (L) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)  

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing right to left across the field at 12-15 mph. Rain comes in after the game is over.

Tarik Skubal has struggled over his past two starts, giving up 4+ ER against the Astros and Braves. There’s at least some chance that a third-straight start doesn’t go well, as this Phillies team is cruising right now AND they only strike out at a 16.4% clip. The Phillies are not going to have a high-implied total here but they have seven batters with above-average power numbers against left-handed pitching over the last month. I’m probably off the lefties even though Bryce Harper has been playing at a MVP-level over the last few weeks. Main targets are Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, and Nick Castellanos. I expect Skubal to struggle again here.

Ranger Suarez will draw the start for the Phillies. He’ll take on a Tigers team that Aaron Nola cruised through last night. Suarez has had some massive struggles against lefties over the last month, but the numbers against righties remain elite. That’s really all that matters here, as the only lefty we should expect to see is high-strikeout outfielder Riley Greene. Suarez has the chance for a dominant start along with an offense that should provide run support for him. PrizePicks taco analysis is on the timeline, it’s a solid 8/10, but the strikeout ceiling probably won’t be there for Ranger.

Seattle Mariners -120 @ Tampa Bay Rays +102

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo (R) vs. Zack Littell (R)

Taj Bradley racked up the punchouts yesterday evening, but I don’t think we’re going to see anywhere near the same success for Zack Littell today. With a K% under 18% collectively and loads of damage given up from both sides of the plate (0.239 ISO / 0.396 wOBA), Littell has had a rough June (14 ER over the last four starts). Luke Raley profiles as the best hitter in this matchup. Getting Jorge Polanco back will be a nice upgrade for this M’s offense.

Luis Castillo has given up 5 ER twice in his last three starts. His numbers over the last month to lefties have fallen off a cliff (0.319 ISO / 0.389 wOBA). This is an incredible spot for Josh Lowe, who has had an awesome last week (pretty dang close to a home run call). Castillo should be able to handle this righty-heavy lineup but will struggle against the few lefties Tampa can roll out.

Pittsburgh Pirates +108 @ Cincinnati Reds -126

Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller (R) vs. Hunter Greene (R)

Temps reaching 90 in the Cincy area with winds blowing out to left at 10-12 mph. This game was electric yesterday, but rain might get in the way today. Line of storms approaching right at first pitch, so all things are on the table right now. We could see a PPD, a late start delay situation, it’s very tricky to tell at this time of the day. Please check back in the discord this afternoon for a final decision.

Hunter Greene threw a two-hit shutout against this Reds squad in his last start. Makes a lot of sense when you look at his last month dominance against left-handed hitters. Righties are tuning up Greene, so if we get a full start here, I don’t mind looking at Andrew McCutchen. Cruz, Tellez, and Reynolds are off the table for me in this matchup. Reynolds will have to continue his 21-game hitting streak off of the Reds bullpen today, as he is just 1/8 lifetime against Greene with three strikeouts.

The Reds put up double-digit runs last night but might have some trouble doing that again with Mitch Keller on the mound. For the second time in a week, we’re going to get another pitcher on this card that is facing the same offense in consecutive starts. Keller shutout this side as well and this Reds team has just been flat out worse against righties over the last month than to lefties like last night. Jeimer Candelario and Jonathan India are the only bats I can truly get behind on this Reds team. Reminder that pitching could be very dicey with the weather situation we have this evening.

Toronto Blue Jays +100 @ Boston Red Sox -118

Game Total: 9.5 | Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (R)  vs. Brayan Bello (R)

 Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing out to right-center at 5-7 mph. Awesome hitting weather at Fenway Park.

Brayan Bello has had a rough back half of May and beginning of June. He had given up 3+ ER in six-straight starts and then had a decent outing against this Blue Jays team in Toronto in his last start. He has walked at least two bats in six-straight outings and has seen his collective walk rate tip the scales at 10.1% (12.5% to lefties). The ground ball rate is still very solid at 58% collectively over the last month, but this Toronto lineup only has three bats that hit the ground ball more than 45% of the time. Considering this is the second time in a week that Bello is seeing this lineup, I’d imagine it won’t go well when you’re looking at excellent hitting conditions at Fenway. Spencer Horwitz and Daulton Varsho are my favorite bats on this side.

Kevin Gausman just gave up four runs to this Boston team one week ago and like Bello, has to face the same opponent in b2b starts in a very hitter-friendly environment. This Boston team sees Kevin very well historically, with Duran (6/13 with 4 2B, 1 HR) and Masataka Yoshida (4/6) leading the way. Last night was Rafael Devers night, tonight will be Jarren Duran night. In the month of June, Duran has put together a batting average over 0.385, an OBP over 0.440, and is currently on a 14-game hitting streak with double-digit fantasy points in nine of those games. This Red Sox team has the 5th-highest implied run total on the card and all stars are aligning for these left-handed hitters. Gausman’s splits against the left side have been tremendously bad over the last month (0.280 ISO / 0.364 wOBA / 50% hard contact). Duran, Hamilton, Abreu, Devers, Yoshida, Smith, McGuire all bat from the left side.

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!