If you're betting on the MLB June 27th...

Minnesota Twins -104 @ Arizona Diamondbacks -112

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: David Festa (R) vs. Jordan Montgomery (L)  

Jordan Montgomery has had a much better last two starts than his pretty horrific month of May (and into June). I can’t imagine that positive streak continues today, as Montgomery’s struggles to righties are going to get him in a lot of trouble today (0.250 ISO / 0.414 wOBA / 35% ground ball rate / 50% hard contact). The Twins will platoon against him with nine righties and have a projected lineup that has seven hitters with an ISO over 0.200 against left-handed pitching over the last month. Leading the way here is Carlos Correa (0.345 ISO / 0.440 wOBA) while Byron Buxton, Carlos Santana, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, and Manny Margot are all smashing lefties. I know that the industry got burned by Lewis last night, but this team is going to rough Monty up today. My favorite way to approach this is to take Correa HRR and get the rest of the exposure on Montgomery hits/runs allowed.

David Festa will make his Major League debut on Thursday afternoon in Arizona. Festa is the No. 4 prospect in the Twins organization and ranks 93 overall among MLB prospects. This dude is 6’6” / 185 lbs and brings solid command combined with velo in the mid-90s. With an xFIP sitting at 3.13 in Triple-A this year and a K/9 sitting at an impressive 13.12, the dude has some impressive stuff. We shall see if that strikeout rate of 35% can translate to the bigs and this Diamondbacks team that whiffs at 21% to righties today (5 snake bats have a K% of 25%+). Christian Walker has the best power numbers on the team against right-handed pitching while Joc Pederson is a close second. 

Chicago Cubs -108 @ San Francisco Giants -108

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga (L) vs. Jordan Hicks (R) 

Temps in the low 60s with winds blowing out to left at 8-10 mph. Pitcher-friendly park that mitigates wind at one of the best clips in the MLB.

Jordan Hicks has failed to record more than 15+ pitching outs in nine of his last ten starts in 2024. He is coming off a poor revenge game against his former team in St. Louis where he gave up 5 ER. Previous to that start, he ended up blanking this Cubs team in Chicago and only allowed four hits. The walk rate of 16.7% to lefties over the last month is higher than the strikeout rate (14.8%) and if he’s not striking out righties, damage has followed against that handedness. Michael Busch and Ian Happ are heavy walk lefties while Seiya Suzuki has the numbers and low ground ball rate against righties (Suzuki also carries strikeout risk). I lean on the side of Hicks having some strikeout upside against a Chicago team that is whiffing collectively at 26.9% to right-handed pitching in June.

Ever since Shota Imanaga took that picture in Chicago next to Angel Reese, his life as a starter has taken a bumpy ride. Shota is coming off a 10 ER shelling against the Mets in his last start and will face a Giants team today that has some hitters on this team with really solid numbers against left-handed pitching. The biggest thing for me in this matchup is that the Giants will put a ton of balls in play with a low collective strikeout rate of 20.1% against lefties. San Francisco is also one of the more patient teams in the MLB against a handedness, as they walk collectively at a 9.9% clip and have six hitters in the projected lineup with a double-digit walk rate over the last month. Heliot Ramos profiles the best here on the Giants while Matt Chapman, Nick Ahmed, Wilmer Flores, and Jorge Soler could all do damage here. Given the park factor, I won’t say Shota gets shelled, but I don’t expect an ace-level performance from the Cubs southpaw.

Atlanta Braves -320 @ Chicago White Sox +260

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale (L) vs. Chad Kuhl (R)  

Temps in the high 60s with winds blowing left to right across the field at 10 mph. This is a makeup game from a postponement on April 3rd and is the only game of this series before both teams take on different opponents on Friday night.. 

We are currently looking at Chad Kuhl potentially starting for the White Sox on Thursday afternoon. Khul has made a few appearances in June and if he is tasked with the starting role today, fire up those Braves bats, baby. In 2016, left-handed hitters scorched Chad Kuhl. In 2020, left-handed hitters scorched Chad Kuhl. In 2024, lefties have been scorching Chad Kuhl. It’s a tale as old as time and should be taken pretty seriously with Atlanta’s 4.9 implied run total (2nd-highest on the card). I am a big fan of Jarred Kelenic and Matt Olson today. Hopefully a matchup like this wakes up Ozzie Albies and his recent struggles. Marcell Ozuna is a right-handed hitter who can also do very well here with his numbers over the last month against righties (0.365 ISO / 0.454 wOBA / 60% hard contact). Kelenic has six hits in the last two games and has recorded a base hit in twelve of his last thirteen outings.

The Chris Sale revenge tour continues and stops in Chicago, where it all began, today. Sale has recorded 18+ pitching outs in 9/14 starts this season and has whiffed 8+ batters in 7/14 starts as well. Markets will be sky high here this afternoon as Sale is an insanely big road favorite, but with five bats swinging-and-missing at 25%+ on this White Sox team, I can buy into Sale having a very solid day. Korey Lee profiles as a solid bat in this matchup but I expect Sale to have his way with this offense and get the run support he needs to earn a win.

Miami Marlins +245 @ Philadelphia Phillies -300

Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers (L) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)

Temps in the mid 80s with winds blowing in from left at 10 mph.

We have two -300 favored pitchers on this card – something I did not think I’d say writing this game up today. Zack Wheeler is a monstrous home-favorite on Thursday night but let’s not forget that he got blown up for 6 ER against a very similarly profiling Marlins team back in mid-May. We’ll see if he learns from his mistakes a month back, as the bad numbers against left-handed hitters have subsided for the time being over the last month. With that said, Zack Wheeler still has a very low ground ball rate against lefties and some underlying stuff telling us that that side of the plate could rough him up if he’s not on his game. Absolutely zero righties against Wheeler, as he is elite to that handedness. Jesus Sanchez is seeing right-handed hitters  at the best clip on the team while Josh Bell and Jazz Chisholm have really solid BvP alongside Sanchez.

The Phillies have the highest-implied run total on this card at 5.2 runs. They’ll see Trevor Rogers here, a southpaw that gave up four runs to this team back in mid-May. Rogers has allowed 6+ hits in 9/15 starts this season and we’ve seen the strikeout rate against lefties dip under 10% over the last month. Low ground ball guys will be key here and we have plenty of them in the heart of this order. Nick Castellanos is the best profiling hitter against left-handed pitching over the last month for this squad (0.588 ISO / 0.528 wOBA / 30% ground ball rate / 61.5% hard contact). Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber are all elite bats in this spot and should be heavily considered. If Edmundo Sosa makes the lineup, he’s also in play. Casty is 4/8 with a home run against Rogers while Sosa has also left the yard in this matchup. Phillies deserve to be a top three offense this evening if not the top overall.

Texas Rangers +176 @ Baltimore Orioles -210

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Jon Gray (R)  vs. Corbin Burnes (R)

Temps in the high 80s with winds blowing in from left at 5-7 mph.

Corbin Burnes draws the start as another ace that is a huge favorite on this smaller Thursday card. Burnes has recorded 19+ pitching outs in four of the last five starts and has recorded 18+ pitching outs in 13/16 outings this season. He is coming off a 4 ER performance against Houston, but does get a very nice matchup on paper against a Rangers team that is just not hitting righties well at all (0.115 ISO / 0.266 wOBA as a team – very below-average numbers). Outside of Corey Seager and Josh Smith, the rest of this team (excluding Wyatt Langford) looks lost at the plate against right-handed pitching. I expect Burnes with his elite numbers against lefties to mitigate most everything today and for him to have a very nice start. The one thing that I can’t get behind is the strikeouts – Burnes’ 21% collective rate going up against a Texas team that strikes out at 19% against righties is going to limit that punchout ceiling. Corey Seager is 2/8 lifetime against Burnes with a home run in this matchup.

The Orioles have the 4th-highest implied run total on Thursday’s card at 4.6 runs. They’ll face off against Jon Gray, who is coming off a shutout against KC in his last start, but also a 9 ER shelling against the Mets two starts ago. Gray handles right-handed hitters very well, but he has massive struggles against left-handed hitters that has plagued him the whole season so far. Over the last month, that damage is mainly coming from that Mets team obviously (0.375 ISO / 0.535 wOBA / 38% fly ball rate). Who is better than the Mets against right-handed pitching and one of the best offenses in baseball against this handedness? You guessed it. I’m a huge fan of Gunnar Henderson today while Anthony Santander, Heston Kjerstad, Cedric Mulllins, Ryan O’Hearn, and Adley Rutschman are all really solid lefties to consider here. Henderson has homered in his last two games and has 26 on the season (only Aaron Judge has more). Henderson, Rutschman, Mullins, and Mateo have all hit bombs off Jon Gray in the past.

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!