If you're betting on the MLB June 28th...

Miami Marlins +198 @ Philadelphia Phillies -240

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Kyle Tyler (R) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (L)  

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing out to left at 8-10 mph.

We start our Friday evening with a lopsided affair in Philly (although it was the exact opposite outcome last night). Cristopher Sanchez is by far the biggest home-favorite of all 15 games and will get to see a Miami offense that profiles tremendously bad against left-handed pitching. There are seven bats in the projected lineup that have an ISO of 0.100 or lower and those same seven bats have a wOBA of 0.300 or lower, extremely sub-par numbers. The Marlins are even striking out at a 25.8% clip against lefties over the last month, which is something I wasn’t even going to stress as a talking point for a guy like Sanchez who has a collective 18% K% and focuses on eating innings and getting ground balls. Sanchez has one of the best ground ball rates in the league (58.8% collective, 73.7% to lefties) and it is one of the many reasons why he doesn’t get chewed up and spit out. Not too many weaknesses here, I’m fine with Sanchez over fantasy outputs and would lean on a pitching outs number.

Kyle Tyler will have to face a Phillies team that once again has the highest-implied run total among all 30 teams playing tonight (5.5). Kyle Schwarber left Thursday’s game with a groin injury, so his current status heading into the weekend is unclear at best. Bryce Harper noticeably looked hampered running down the first base line on Thursday’s game and could be out with a hamstring injury as well. The Phillies lineup would get a lot weaker against Tyler, who is known in a very small sample as a pitcher who is pretty average against right-handed hitters but has the makings of being really bad to opposing lefties (very small splits sample sizes). Bryson Stott has a chance to be the new leadoff man and would be decent in this spot while Brandon Marsh and David Dahl would move up in the order to get as many competent lefty hitters in there. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos have looked much better against lefties over the last month. Alec Bohm can be included alongside the lefties mentioned above, but at the end of the day we’re just going to have to see how this lineup shakes out – tough blow for one of the best teams in baseball.

Washington Nationals +132 @ Tampa Bay Rays -156

Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker (L) vs. Zach Eflin (R)

Zach Eflin begins this series for the Rays and is a guy that has kind of been all over the place this season. He has allowed 3+ ER in L6/10 starts, 6+ hits in L7/10 starts, and recently has been striking out lefties at a 27% clip over the last month. Now, this Nationals team does a very good job at not striking out (collectively at 17.3%), but we’ll have to find low ground ball guys, as they will profile best against Eflin’s 52.9% collective ground ball rate over the month of June. Thankfully the two best hitters in this Washington lineup have really low ground ball rates and are crushing righties over the last month. CJ Abrams blanked in his last game but over the last two weeks we’ve seen him put up All-Star worthy numbers in every facet. Lane Thomas had three extra base hits and 3 RBI in the last series with the Padres and hasn’t cooled off since his tremendous Coors Field series last week. Eddie Rosario and Keibert Ruiz both have strong ground ball numbers as well. I am not too thrilled about Eflin in this situation.

Mitchell Parker will start for the Nats on the other side and he’ll have to face a Rays team that is profiling pretty dang well against left-handed pitchers. We’ve been backing Parker at RotoRadar since he entered the rotation for this Washington team, but the longer he’s out there and the more data teams have on him, things are starting to regress just a bit. He’s going to be just fine against lefties this season, problem today is there aren’t going to be any true lefties in this Tampa lineup for easy outs. Yandy Diaz tied the Rays franchise-record 19-game hitting streak on Wednesday and will look to break/extend things to 20 games this evening. Randy Arozarena, Amed Rosario, Isaac Paredes, and Jose Siri are all crushing lefties over the last month and deserve consideration. Horrible setup for Parker this evening.

Texas Rangers +120 @ Baltimore Orioles -142

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer (R) vs. Albert Suarez (R)  

Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing across the field right to left at 8-10 mph.

Albert Suarez had been so good for so long and unfortunately that has come to an end. The Orioles righty has given up 16 hits resulting in 8 ER across his last two starts and will have to face off against a Rangers that can get to him in some aspect tonight. While Corbin Burnes was very effective last night, his numbers coming in were extremely solid to lefties and he still allowed a ton of baserunners to this Texas team. Suarez’s numbers are atrocious coming into this matchup this evening (0.370 wOBA / 15% K% / 18% BB% / 27% ground ball rate) and this Rangers team will most likely have more success in the runs department on Friday. Josh Smith currently has the best numbers against right-handed pitching on this team while Corey Seager quietly is starting to heat up again with hits in five-straight games (including 2 2B). The rest of the lefties haven’t been great, but there are enough of them to make Suarez’s life more difficult (Lowe, Heim, Taveras). Adolis Garcia has a 7-game hitting streak going with two home runs over the last week.

This Orioles team was our gem call yesterday and they absolutely crushed Jon Gray like we expected. They are going to see Max Scherzer today as he’ll make his second start of the year and there are actually signs that the O’s could go off again in some aspects tonight. Mad Max has only seen four left-handed hitters in 2024 so that sample size should not be trusted, but dating back to 2023 against 343 lefties his numbers were much, much worse than they were to opposing righties. This Orioles team has some heavy strikeout guys but collectively they whiff at only a 20.2% clip to righties over the last month. If Max can’t induce ground balls (he’s more of a fly ball pitcher anyway historically), this Orioles team who has nine batters in the projected lineup with ground ball rates under 45%, SHOULD have the matchup on paper to rough him up. Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander (who is 4/7 with 2 HR) profile the best here. Keep an eye on Adley Rutschman’s status, as he left the stadium with a wrap on his hand that resulted from catching the wrong end of a tipped foul ball early in the game (could have just been precautionary). 

New York Yankees -118 @ Toronto Blue Jays +100

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman (R) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (L)

Yusei Kikuchi has allowed 9 ER combined in his last two starts and 19 ER across his last six starts. The southpaw is starting to unfold in spots that are pretty strange and doing well against really good teams. I guess we’ll see what we get today, as this Yankees team is going to bring some pretty good hitters against left-handed pitching to the table this evening. Aaron Judge whiffed a bunch yesterday and sold the community – he’s just 4/23 against Kikuchi with 2 HR lifetime. Juan Soto is just 1/6 in this spot as well…so the outlook isn’t looking great. At least Gleyber Torres is seeing lefties extremely well over the last month and actually has good numbers vs. Kikuchi (10/26 w/ a HR). Idk man, Kikuchi might get the job done here after a few rough starts.

This Yankees pitching group (bullpen and starters) have collectively been AWFUL over the last week. Marcus Stroman will try to right the ship in a revenge/former team narrative but even his outlook hasn’t been great as of late. Stroman has given up 12 runs across his last four starts and the walk troubles have risen, allowing 2+ in five-straight starts. His main issues over the last month are coming from opposing righties and he is no longer inducing ground balls at a confident clip against that side of the ball – screaming disaster for this Yankees team once again. The Blue Jays aren’t going to be in the top half of implied totals on this card, but we’re going to be extra-bullish in this spot to take advantage of this recent implosion. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has the best numbers on this team against right-handed pitching over the last month and walks into Friday’s contest with five 20+ fantasy point performances over the last week (home runs in four of those). George Springer had an abysmal start to the year but now finds himself with three home runs in his last three games and six hits in that time frame. Justin Turner has now caught fire over the last week with hits in seven of his last ten. Jays could be a sneaky offense to roll the dice on.

Houston Astros -116 @ New York Mets -102

Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Ronel Blanco (R)  vs. Jose Quintana (L)

Temps in the low 70s with winds blowing out to left at 10-12 mph.

Jose Quintana has had b2b performances of shut-down baseball against the Padres and Cubs ahead of this evening’s start against the Houston Astros. The strikeouts won’t be there as we know that Houston is one of the lowest-whiff teams in the league against lefties (just 18.8%), but I’m really not too scared of much here for Quintana. Yordan Alvarez profiles well in this matchup as a lefty that can take Quintana (who struggles more to lefties anyway) yard. Alex Bregman has good numbers against lefties and could well in this spot here too, but from there, things get a bit murky. The majority of the bottom of this Astros lineup features high ground ball rates and high strikeout rates against lefties. Jose Altuve is just 5/27 lifetime against Quintana with no extra base hits. Could be a nice outing for the Mets southpaw.

Ronel Blanco hasn’t allowed more than 5 hits in a game all season and will get one of his tougher matchups on Friday night against this Mets team that just whomped the Yankees. New York will come in on paper with eight hitters with above-average ISO numbers against right-handed pitching and eight hitters with a wOBA greater than 0.350 (insane). Blanco’s biggest struggles (there haven’t been many) over the last month are coming from opposing lefties – which will favor Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. Brandon has 17 hits over his last 11 games and has five home runs in that time frame while Lindor has recorded double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games. Even J.D. Martinez is riding a 5-game hitting streak with two doubles and a home run over the last week. Mark Vientos has four homers in the last week. We haven’t even gotten to Francisco Alvarez yet, who is on a ridiculous tear with four doubles and three home runs in his past seven games. This Mets team has scored 9+ runs in five games over the last week and is absolutely murdering baseballs top to bottom.

Read the rest of this evening’s MLB Rundown at the link below!